Strategic Assessment

The Persian Gulf is currently in the midst of one of the largest arms races it has ever known. The chief motivation for it is Iran’s progress on its nuclear program and the possibility that Arab Gulf states will be in the line of fire in any future conflict. These states’ military forces have undergone substantive changes in recent years, mainly improvements in their defensive capabilities, and – on paper – they have acquired certain capabilities to attack Iran. Nevertheless, even massive procurement of weapon systems, no matter how advanced, is no match for Iran’s military power and its ability to conduct modern warfare over any length of time. The basic conditions behind this reality include the Gulf states’ inferior geo-strategic situations, their domestic constraints, their dependence on foreign manpower, and their difficulty in creating effective security cooperation among themselves.