Strategic Assessment

On June 30, 2014, Kurdistan Regional Government President Masoud Barzani announced that he would seek a referendum on Kurdish independence.  In the wake of the subsequent political and military developments in Iraq, the article questions whether and to what extent Turkey and Iran can leverage their relations with the Kurdish rivals of Barzani’s Kurdish Democratic Party to prevent independence or to constrain an independent Kurdish government from exercising autonomy in its foreign relations. Concluding that neither Turkey nor Iran will be able to prevent an independent Kurdistan, the article suggests that an independent Kurdistan will find an enduring relationship with Israel to be vital to securing its national interests as Erbil seeks to preserve its autonomy between the respective demands of Ankara and Tehran.