Strategic Assessment

The UAE will be the first Arab state to launch a civilian nuclear program. It can therefore also be expected to be the first state in more than one quarter of a century to join the civilian nuclear club. This essay examines the components of the UAE’s decision and the hurdles it faces as it attempts to realize its nuclear program. The Iranian nuclear program is one of the motives for the UAE project, but there are also considerations of prestige and growing energy needs. Thus, the agreement reached between Iran and the P5+1 is not expected to interrupt the UAE program. Moreover, other states are liable to begin developing their own civilian nuclear programs, though without the self-imposed limits assumed by the UAE when it adopted the “gold standard” of nuclear agreements. The UAE itself, under certain circumstances, might reconsider some of its earlier self-imposed limitations in the nuclear realm in light of the agreement with Iran.