Strategic Assessment

At the outset of 2004, Israel appears close to reaching an historic national decision that would affirm and strengthen its character as a Jewish democratic state. This momentous decision might emerge from two principal factors within Israel’s overall strategic position. The first is the strengthening of Israel’s status as a regional superpower after nearly all its neighboring opponents have – at least temporarily – vanished from the scene, have been significantly weakened, or have changed their policy in a way that reduces the danger they present to Israel. The second factor is Israel’s inability to use its overall strategic superiority to impose of its will over the Palestinians and in this manner bring an end to the ongoing conflict. The overall significance of these factors is that Israel currently enjoys very broad security margins that enable it to take steps that, in the past, seemed too dangerous. At the same time, it has no alternative other than to disengage from control of the Palestinians living in Judea, Samaria, East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip.