Strategic Assessment

A common assumption among government officials and Middle East experts is that the popular uprisings in the Arab world have dealt a serious blow to al-Qaeda. This article examines whether the "Arab spring" indeed portends the end of al-Qaeda, or whether the new situation may actually provide the organization fertile ground for implementing its strategic struggle, making it easier and safer for activists to be present in these states and recruit new cadres while taking advantage of the unrest. The claims that the Arab spring augurs the end of al-Qaeda will be considered, along with statements by the organization's leaders on the significance of the recent events. Against this background, an assessment will be made how the emerging situation is liable to affect the organization's operational freedom.