For months, Saudi Arabia has been absorbing missile and drone attacks from Iran and its proxies. Energy infrastructure has been damaged, Riyadh’s airport has been largely shut down, and civilians have been killed. Yet Saudi Arabia’s defense minister traveled to Tehran, was photographed smiling alongside senior Iranian officials, and called for dialogue.
Why? Riyadh fears Iranian aggression, but fears even more so the resumption of war between the United States and Israel against Iran. Saudi officials believe another round could be more destructive than the previous ones, and that Saudi Arabia could pay a heavy price for a war it did not initiate and whose course it cannot control.
More importantly, Riyadh appears to doubt that another U.S.-Israeli strike could change Iran’s policy, let alone topple the regime. From its perspective, the most dangerous scenario is a war that leaves Iran battered and vengeful, without eliminating the threat it poses. Another round.
The security costs are compounded by a steep economic price. Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 depends on stability, investment, and tourism. It is difficult to attract investors when airports and energy infrastructure are repeatedly exposed to attack.
Saudi Arabia is therefore not necessarily seeking closer ties with Iran; it is seeking to keep the threat of war at a distance. Yet herein lies the paradox: the more Iran uses force and receives dialogue in return, the more it may conclude that its aggression pays off.
The Saudi choice does not necessarily amount to capitulation, but it illustrates the limits of deterrence and the depth of Riyadh’s fear of another war. Riyadh would rather deal with a hostile yet restrained Iran, than gamble on a war that may not change Iran’s behavior, but will almost certainly exact a heavy price from the kingdom.
For months, Saudi Arabia has been absorbing missile and drone attacks from Iran and its proxies. Energy infrastructure has been damaged, Riyadh’s airport has been largely shut down, and civilians have been killed. Yet Saudi Arabia’s defense minister traveled to Tehran, was photographed smiling alongside senior Iranian officials, and called for dialogue.
Why? Riyadh fears Iranian aggression, but fears even more so the resumption of war between the United States and Israel against Iran. Saudi officials believe another round could be more destructive than the previous ones, and that Saudi Arabia could pay a heavy price for a war it did not initiate and whose course it cannot control.
More importantly, Riyadh appears to doubt that another U.S.-Israeli strike could change Iran’s policy, let alone topple the regime. From its perspective, the most dangerous scenario is a war that leaves Iran battered and vengeful, without eliminating the threat it poses. Another round.
The security costs are compounded by a steep economic price. Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 depends on stability, investment, and tourism. It is difficult to attract investors when airports and energy infrastructure are repeatedly exposed to attack.
Saudi Arabia is therefore not necessarily seeking closer ties with Iran; it is seeking to keep the threat of war at a distance. Yet herein lies the paradox: the more Iran uses force and receives dialogue in return, the more it may conclude that its aggression pays off.
The Saudi choice does not necessarily amount to capitulation, but it illustrates the limits of deterrence and the depth of Riyadh’s fear of another war. Riyadh would rather deal with a hostile yet restrained Iran, than gamble on a war that may not change Iran’s behavior, but will almost certainly exact a heavy price from the kingdom.