Supporters and opponents of the Iranian regime disagree on almost everything. But when it comes to the possibility of another round of military confrontation, the discourse on social media reveals a shared working assumption across both camps.
A sample of social media discourse points to three main assessments:
- A third round of military confrontation with Iran is inevitable: Both camps expect the military confrontation between Israel/the United States and Iran to resume.
- The next round will come before the elections: The shared assessment is that the confrontation will take place before the elections in Israel and before the midterm elections in the United States.
- Israel will be the one to initiate: The prevailing assumption is that Israel will initiate and lead the military operation, as it did at the start of Operation "Rising Lion," with the possibility that the United States will join later.
It is important to emphasize: This is not an intelligence assessment or a forecast of the likelihood of war, but rather an analysis of trends in social media discourse alone. The main point is the existence of a shared perception among regime supporters and opponents regarding whether another round will take place, when it will occur, and who will initiate it.
Supporters and opponents of the Iranian regime disagree on almost everything. But when it comes to the possibility of another round of military confrontation, the discourse on social media reveals a shared working assumption across both camps.
A sample of social media discourse points to three main assessments:
It is important to emphasize: This is not an intelligence assessment or a forecast of the likelihood of war, but rather an analysis of trends in social media discourse alone. The main point is the existence of a shared perception among regime supporters and opponents regarding whether another round will take place, when it will occur, and who will initiate it.