The signing of the framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon constitutes an important and positive development in relations between the two countries, reflecting their shared interest in working toward the disarmament of Hezbollah and the reduction of Iranian influence in Lebanon. At the same time, the implementation of the agreement is expected to be slow, prolonged, and fraught with challenges, and its success is not assured — primarily due to Hezbollah’s firm opposition and the weakness of the Lebanese army and state....
The Israeli strike in Beirut following Hezbollah’s rocket fire on northern Israel, and the subsequent round of exchanges between Israel and Iran, illustrate both the complexity of the American effort to curb escalation and Israel’s challenge of separating the Lebanese arena from Iran. The Trump administration sought to advance a renewed agreement between Israel and Lebanon, strengthen the Lebanese government, restrict Hezbollah’s freedom of action, and preserve maneuver space regarding Tehran. However, it failed to prevent an...
As the war between Israel and Hezbollah drags on, mounting signs suggest that its severe impact on Lebanon’s Shiite population is beginning to erode support for the organization. This is particularly due to the heavy price being paid by the Shiite population — and Lebanon as a whole — as a result of Hezbollah’s war in service of Iranian interests. While Hezbollah still enjoys broad support within the Shiite sector, cracks in that support weigh heavily on the organization as it fights a war of survival under intense military,...
The interactive map herein provides a situational overview of the Lebanese arena during Operation Roaring Lion (Epic Fury) and following the ceasefire agreement that came into effect on April 16, 2026. The map displays the Israeli security zone, IDF strikes in the vicinity, as well as IDF outposts and UN bases. The map is updated continuously with the highest possible precision, based on open-source intelligence (OSINT) and media reports.
A significant part of Hezbollah’s resilience rests on a global money-transfer network embedded within the Lebanese diaspora and in informal remittance systems, as well as on a wide range of illicit revenue streams developed over decades. Therefore, military strikes alone—without an international financial strategy focused on the organization’s financial network—are unlikely to significantly undermine its long-term financing capabilities or its capacity for recovery derived from them. To impair Hezbollah’s financing system, a broader...
Assuming that Operation Roaring Lion does not end in the complete defeat of Hezbollah, the issue of disarming Hezbollah will remain on the agenda at its conclusion—an interest shared by both Israel and the Lebanese state. This article proposes adopting the DDR model—Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration—and advancing an L(ebanon)DDR process as an orderly framework for disarming Hezbollah and integrating it into Lebanon, alongside repairing, rebuilding, and strengthening the Lebanese state.
This framework offers an...
Hezbollah’s decision to open an additional front against Israel after the attack on Iran was meant not only to relieve the military pressure on Iran but also to strengthen the organization’s own standing at a time when it has been weakened militarily and politically and is facing growing criticism at home and abroad. Hezbollah is now waging a war of survival, seeking to shift the balance of power with the IDF and improve its position within Lebanon. It is doing so by employing its full arsenal of missiles, rockets, and UAVs and by...
The Lebanese Army is the weak link on the path to realizing the vision of Lebanon’s new leadership, which seeks to repair and rehabilitate the state. A central aspect of implementing this vision is the collection of all weapons held by the militias, primarily Hezbollah, and their transfer to the Lebanese Army. This goal aligns with Israel’s interest in seeing Lebanon become a sovereign and functioning state, with a responsible central authority, whom Israel can address, that holds a monopoly on weapons through a strong army...
The events of October 7, 2023, not only shook Israel’s national security but also undermined public trust in state institutions, especially the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), to an unprecedented degree. It was in this context that the northern campaign developed—initially secondary in the strategic agenda but gradually taking a central place in public consciousness. For many, the approach toward fighting Hezbollah—ranging from containment and restraint to significant escalation—was seen as an ongoing test of the system’s ability to...
One year after the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, the Lebanese arena is undergoing changes. These changes are reflected both in the internal balance of power between Lebanon’s new leadership and Hezbollah, as well as in the balance of power between the organization and the IDF, which has not relented and continues to weaken it. However, this opportunity for change is overshadowed by Hezbollah’s determination to recover and by the difficulties facing the Lebanese government, which remains weak as it attempts to compel the...
The elimination of Hassan Nasrallah marked the lowest point in Hezbollah’s history, following a series of blows inflicted by the IDF during the war with Israel and other negative developments from the organization’s perspective, mainly the collapse of the Assad regime, the disintegration of the pro-Iranian Shiite axis, and the establishment of a new Lebanese leadership opposed to Hezbollah’s path. A year later, it appears that while Hezbollah has changed its appearance, it still clings to its extremist ideology. The ceremonies...
This policy paper proposes a strategy to translate the IDF’s achievements in the war against Hezbollah—along with the disintegration of the Shiite axis, the collapse of the Assad regime, and the consequences of the war between Israel and Iran—into a new security reality along the border with Lebanon, and to foster better relations with Lebanon’s new leadership.
The strategy combines ongoing military action to weaken Hezbollah and prevent its recovery with political and economic measures designed to diminish the organization while...
