Publications

The election of Joseph Aoun as president of Lebanon and the appointment of Nawaf Salam as prime minister signal the beginning of a new era in Lebanon and another painful blow to Hezbollah, following its defeat in the war against Israel and the collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria. Hezbollah’s weakened position enabled the opposition forces—backed by the United States, France, and Saudi Arabia—to secure a required majority, even compelling Hezbollah to reluctantly support Aoun, while Salam was elected without Hezbollah’s endorsement....

The agreement’s implementation phase is going surprisingly well and has been extended, but maintaining the ceasefire will require officials to resolve the issues in dispute and address Hezbollah’s threats.

Hezbollah’s war against Israel is taking a heavy toll on Lebanon. While it is too early to fully assess the economic damage, the consequences of the war are evident as a result of the direct physical damage along with the damage to the Lebanese economy, estimated by the World Bank at approximately $8.5 billion. This has intensified criticism of Hezbollah, from both its opponents and even some Shiite supporters in Lebanon, as Iran promises to rehabilitate the country in order to maintain its influence. At the same time, Hezbollah’s...

Against the backdrop of the war between Israel and Hezbollah, Qatar appears to be taking steps to expand its influence in Lebanon. Israel’s wariness toward Qatar stems from Doha’s adversarial policy toward Israel and with its ties to Hamas. Nevertheless, Israel and Qatar’s interests may converge regarding Lebanon, particularly in preventing the country from completely falling into the hands of Iran and Hezbollah. In this context, coordination between Israel and the United States, which has close ties with Qatar, is necessary.

A series of operational successes provides Israel with the ideal opportunity to closely consider its exit strategy. Now, with these achievements accumulating, it is the right time to examine the question of ending the military campaign and securing its diplomatic benefits to improve Israel’s national security in every respect. In recent weeks, Israel has achieved a series of successes, particularly on the northern front and in the Gaza Strip. Some of these achievements can be attributed to chance, such as the elimination of Hamas...

During the war between Israel and Hezbollah, and especially since the IDF launched its ground operation in southern Lebanon, the widespread presence of Hezbollah along the border between Israel and Lebanon has highlighted the ineffectiveness of UNIFIL. At the same time, friction between the IDF and UNIFIL is increasing, with the latter claiming its forces have been harmed. While Israel’s interest in establishing an improved security regime along the border on “the day after” is incompatible with UNIFIL’s continued presence in its...

Recently, the public discourse has been heavily focused on the possibility of a comprehensive war with Hezbollah. This article focuses on the severe damages expected in such a war to Israel’s civilian home front and its functional continuity, and consequently to the resilience of Israeli society and its ability to recover from the war. The analysis puts forward the need to carefully consider the risks posed by such a war to the civilian sphere, especially as long as the war in the Gaza Strip continues.

Since the beginning of the Swords of Iron operation, Hezbollah has been using drones for intelligence gathering and launching attacks against Israel. Daily attacks using explosive drones have also become frequent, as well as rocket and anti-tank missile barrages and rotary drones. While some drones have been intercepted, many have breached Israeli defenses, causing casualties and property damage. Hezbollah mainly uses Iranian suicide drones and recently employed a missile-carrying drone for the first time, against Israel....

Although Hezbollah and Iran are not yet interested in a large-scale war, Israel’s campaign against Lebanon could escalate under two main scenarios: (1) If Hezbollah continues to fight against Israel as long as the war in Gaza persists or if Iran requests that the Lebanese-based group becomes more involved in its campaign against Israel; (2) If Israel launches an extensive operation that ignores the “rules of engagement” with Hezbollah, aiming to change the security situation on the northern border and facilitate the return of the...

As part of the American-led efforts to use diplomatic means to end the fighting that has been ongoing for nearly five months between Israel and Hezbollah, the need to demarcate an agreed-upon border between Israel and Lebanon was also on the agenda. The Lebanese government is eager to include border demarcation in any ceasefire agreement and has adopted the same policy on this matter as Hezbollah, linking an end to the fighting to the cessation of Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip and presenting a hardline maximalist approach to...