Publications

With the rise of an Islamist regime in Syria, a new reality has emerged that presents both risks and opportunities for Israel. Although Iran has been pushed out of Syria, it is expected to attempt to renew its presence there. Meanwhile, Turkey is playing a central role in Syria, a development that could lead to political and military friction with Israel—potentially escalating in an extreme scenario to direct military confrontation. At the same time, Turkey is likely the only actor with both the motivation and capability to deploy...

On November 20, 2024, the US Senate rejected three resolutions aimed at limiting the export of offensive weapons to Israel. The resolutions, introduced by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, were based on claims that Israel was failing to meet its obligations under international law in the war in the Gaza Strip. Despite their defeat, the resolutions garnered significant support among progressive Democrats—especially compared to previous similar resolutions—and also received backing from some liberal Jewish organizations. The willingness...

When Prime Minister Netanyahu addresses a joint session of Congress on July 24, he will also be addressing the American Jewish community. This article describes American Jewish attitudes about the Israel-Hamas war, the Israeli government and the upcoming US elections. It shows that although American Jews strongly supported Israel throughout the war, they had many serious criticisms of the “full right” government prior to October 7. It also shows that most will support the Democratic nominee in the US presidential election in...

January 31, 2018, was a bitterly cold night in the Shirobad neighborhood of Tehran. In an exquisitely timed and synchronized operation, Mossad agents broke into six heavy steel vaults containing a vast trove of top-secret information that showed not only that Iran had once had a military nuclear program, but that it still did. As Yonah Jeremy Bob and Ilan Evyatar wrote in their recent book Target Tehran, the event constituted “perhaps the largest physical heist of intelligence materials from an enemy capital in the history of...

US President Joe Biden’s decision to present the “Israeli plan” for a hostage deal and a ceasefire between the IDF and Hamas appears to have been motivated by an assessment that Israel’s military campaign had run its course. Despite the administration’s view that Hamas is responsible for the delay in reaching a hostage deal, Biden clearly believed that revealing the Israeli proposal would encourage Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a decision—notwithstanding the bitter domestic arguments in Israel between those who support...

Joe Biden is reportedly one of only two US presidents to have given serious consideration to a defense treaty with Israel. A number of Israeli premiers have weighed a defense treaty over the years, primarily as a means of offsetting security concerns and public qualms regarding concessions in peace talks. Counterintuitively, perhaps, Israel’s defense establishment has long been opposed. This study analyzes the pros and cons of a bilateral defense treaty from both the Israeli and American perspectives and proposes ways of addressing...

Israel’s plan to launch a military offensive in Rafah is at the center of the growing disagreement between the United States and Israel. The Biden administration is pressuring Israel to avoid such an operation, stating that Israel can achieve its objectives through other means. This adds to the existing differences between the two countries, including the US demand for Israel to establish a clear post-war strategy and address the humanitarian situation in Gaza. These topics, along with a possible hostage deal in exchange for a...

The American stance supporting Israel in the “Swords of Iron” war has been unprecedented, except perhaps in the Yom Kippur War. The United States shares the goal of destroying Hamas and creating a new security situation in the Gaza Strip and the border region. In practice, there has been an informal division of labor between the countries, with Israel targeting Hamas and the United States deterring Iran and its proxies from escalating to the point of a regional conflagration. But alongside this, the administration has set limitations...

Iran was one of the first states to formulate a national cyber strategy, including development of the necessary state institutions and technological capabilities. Today, Iran is one of the more active states in the cyber realm, near the top of the second tier of global actors. Iran’s cyber attacks have demonstrated the potential to disrupt, sabotage and even destroy civil and commercial targets, critical national infrastructure and military capabilities, and its cyber espionage and information operations have been particularly...

For the past several years—and even more so since the start of the “judicial overhaul”—we have been warning about an impending crisis in relations between the United States and Israel. The war postponed these tensions, which had grown in the months before October 7, but now, following a period of unprecedented strategic cooperation, the gaps are widening around Israel’s handling of the war and “the day after.” The Biden administration is increasingly skeptical that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) can achieve its military goals and is...