Lifting the Embargo on Arms Sales to Iran
Ephraim Kam
INSS Insight No. 1387, October 11, 2020
The embargo imposed by the UN Security Council on the sale of weapons to Iran will expire on October 18, 2020. At that time, Iran will be permitted to purchase the weapon systems that it sought unsuccessfully to obtain in the past. Iran will likely prefer to buy weapons mainly from Russia, which since the 1990s has been its principal arms supplier, and its shopping list will probably include the Sukhoi S-30 aircraft and the S-400 advanced air defense systems. However, over the last two decades, even before the embargo was imposed,...
Iran, the Coronavirus Crisis, and the Consolidation in Syria
Ephraim Kam
INSS Insight No. 1314, May 7, 2020
Iran is not expected to cede its consolidation in Syria, despite its economic difficulties and the danger of extensive popular protest related to the coronavirus pandemic. But it is possible that Iran will be forced to reduce its entrenchment activity in Syria, at least temporarily, mainly for economic reasons. Against this backdrop, the question arises: could Iran try to take advantage of Israel’s preoccupation with the coronavirus crisis to ignite a large scale conflict, especially through a strong response to Israeli air...
Iranian Stakes in Syria
Ephraim Kam
Special Publication, November 12, 2019
Against the backdrop of its military involvement in Syria, Iran has taken a series of steps since 2014 to reinforce its standing in Syria and Lebanon and enhance its military preparedness there, as well as that of its proxies – first and foremost Hezbollah. These steps are of two types. One consists of steps designed to influence Syria’s internal situation and bind it to Iran for the long term, including economic agreements on reconstruction, resettlement of Shiites in Syria, introduction of Iranian religious and cultural values into...
The Effect of the Six Day War on Arab Security Concepts
Ephraim Kam
Tel Aviv: The Institute for National Security Studies, 2018
The Six Day War ended with a resounding military defeat for the Arab states. Indeed, in Israel’s War of Independence, the Arab armies failed in their efforts to stop the creation of the State of Israel, which at the end of the war held a larger area than it had been allotted by the UN Partition Plan. However, the Arab armies at that time were weak, and the lack of agreement among the Arab countries, which were ruled by the old regimes, prevented effective cooperation between them. In the 1956 Sinai Campaign, the Egyptian army was...
Iran in a Changing Strategic Environment
, , Ephraim Kam
Memorandum No. 173, INSS, Tel-Aviv, March 2018
This collection contains essays analyzing the state of Iran’s nuclear program and the deterrent relationship between the United States and Iran since the nuclear agreement was presented; Iran’s relations with specific Middle East states; and dominant political and social issues within Iran, and their influence on Iran’s foreign policy. These trends and developments constitute a changing strategic environment for Iran, which necessarily affects Iran’s geopolitical stature.
Iran-Russia-Syria: A Threefold Cord is not Quickly Broken
Ephraim Kam
Memorandum No. 173, INSS, Tel-Aviv, March 2018
Is Iran about to Operate the Land Corridor to Syria?
Ephraim Kam
INSS Insight No. 1021, February 14, 2018
Initial indications are that Iran has not yet operated the land corridor through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon to any significant extent; this impression has been bolstered by statements by the US Secretary of Defense. The reason seems to be Iran’s fear of attacks on convoys using the corridor, be they by US forces, the IDF, or Islamic State and Sunni elements. This fear will apparently continue in the future.
Senior officials within the Iranian regime have long been convinced that American administrations have striven to infiltrate Iran’s internal system and topple the Islamic regime, and this impression has been bolstered of late. For its part, even if the Trump administration has not presented a defined position on regime change in Iran, it undoubtedly has a clear interest in this regard. Yet the US administration has no concrete ability to bring about regime change in Iran in the desired direction – not by supporting internal...
Egypt: The Struggles of the Sisi Regime
Ephraim Kam
Strategic Survey for Israel 2016-2017, eds. Anat Kurz and Shlomo Brom, Tel Aviv: Institute for National Security Studies, 2016
The challenges facing Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, especially regarding consolidation of his regime, the struggle against terrorism, and severe economic difficulties, are discussed in this article. With an emphasis on Israel’s interests, the author concludes that Israel should continue its cooperation with Egypt in the framework of the struggle against terrorist strongholds in Sinai, as well as the links between Islamic groups operating in Sinai and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Israel should also cultivate the Egyptian...
Iran after the Nuclear Agreement
Ephraim Kam, Sima Shine
Strategic Survey for Israel 2016-2017, eds. Anat Kurz and Shlomo Brom, Tel Aviv: Institute for National Security Studies, 2016
The article deals with Iran after the JCPOA and shows that Iran’s international standing, which improved as a result of the JCPOA, brings with it some negative implications for Israel, given the strengthening of the radical camp. At the same time, this development may spur the pragmatic Arab states to meet the challenge of Iran’s rising stature by expanding their engagement with Israel, as they face a common enemy. The shared regional interest, which is Israel’s as well, may even heighten if the new US administration is more...
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