Publications

Current Situation – High-level enrichment · Thousands of advanced centrifuges · Limited inspection · Fissile material for  4 devices within 1 month · Continued regional subversion · Challenges of legitimacy and countermeasures | Current Israeli Strategy – Reject renewed JCPOA · Advocate “longer & stronger” agreement · Create credible military threat · Attack in Syria against regional subversion | Recommended Strategy – Expand cooperation with the US to improve the military option · Build a political...

The 10th Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference (RevCon) in New York on August 1-26, 2022, convenes following a number of delays caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The conference will mark two important milestones in the efforts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons on the way to their total elimination: 50 years since the NPT entered into force, and 25 years since it was extended for an indefinite period. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, accompanied by gross violations of the treaty and the world order, represents...

The deadlock in the talks between Iran and the United States about a return to the nuclear agreement and the condemnation by the IAEA Board of Governors of Iran’s refusal to cooperate have escalated the tension between Iran and the international community. At the same time, Tehran is taking advantage of the crisis to increase its uranium enrichment to high levels, install advanced centrifuges that will step up its enrichment production, and remove some of the cameras supervising its activity. The coming weeks will be critical...

In 2021 Iran saw a change of president and government; rounds of talks that did not produce a return to the nuclear deal; an intensified confrontation with the IAEA; strengthened relations with China and Russia; and initial talks to improve relations with the Gulf states. At the same time, Iran experienced increasing difficulties in Iraq and Lebanon; and continued activities attributed to Israel against the nuclear program and against the transfer of weapons to Syria and Hezbollah, as well as at sea and in the cyber realm. In the...

The changes on the northern front, particularly the ongoing Iranian efforts to consolidate its presence there (even though this has been obstructed to some extent), the precision missiles and rockets project in Lebanon, and the worsening economic crisis in Lebanon and Syria highlight Israel’s need to adjust its policy to address the unfolding challenges more effectively. Israel’s campaign between wars continues to lead the efforts to stop Iran, but clearly this policy does not provide a full response to the challenges,...

The Tenth Review Conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to be held on January 4-28, 2022, will mark 50 years since the Treaty entered into force and 25 years since its extension for an unlimited period. In spite of the Treaty’s achievements, the challenges to the implementation of its main objectives and the effectiveness of the arms control regime and nonproliferation efforts following the appearance of new technologies that threaten strategic stability raise question marks regarding the ability of the parties to the...

On January 4, 2021, Iran announced that it had begun enriching uranium to a level of 20 percent at a well-protected facility in Fordow. This level of enrichment departs completely from Iran’s commitment stipulated in the agreement reached with the world powers in 2015 (JCPOA). There are two main possible reasons for this Iranian announcement. One, it is intended as a provocation, designed to exert pressure on the world powers to lift the sanctions imposed on Iran, which were renewed by the United States. Two, Iran intends to...

A facility for the extraction of yellowcake from uranium ore has been detected in Saudi Arabia. The facility, which has been in place for some time, was constructed in cooperation with two Chinese companies. The report comes on top of a number of discoveries indicative of an effort by Saudi Arabia, apparently in the early stages, to test elements of the nuclear fuel cycle, as well as closer cooperation between Saudi Arabia and China. The nuclear agreement with Iran (JCPOA) did not lessen Saudi Arabia’s motivation to acquire...

An official announcement released by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on July 22, 2019 stated that Director General (DG) Yukiya Amano had passed away. The announcement came on the day that Amano was scheduled to announce his early retirement from his position in March 2020. Thus, the idea of the need for a replacement was already in the air, but the timeline for appointing a new DG has narrowed dramatically, and discussions regarding Amano’s replacement have reportedly already begun among IAEA member states. This article...

Three years after the JCPOA was implemented in mid-January 2016, two major developments are particularly noteworthy: the new approach toward Iran and the nuclear deal adopted by US President Trump, culminating with his decision to leave the JCPOA in May 2018, and efforts exerted by Iran to ensure that the deal remains intact. Whether and how there will be a willingness on the part of the regime to return to the negotiating table is an open question, but in any case, two major problems related to the JCPOA that arose over the course...

In November 2018, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman laid the foundation stone for seven scientific/technological projects in the kingdom, including a nuclear research reactor. Saudi Arabia’s interest in nuclear matters is nothing new, nor is the concern that in certain conditions, the kingdom is liable to move toward nuclear weapons. To be sure, Saudi Arabia has serious reasons to seek civilian nuclear energy in order to meet its growing energy requirements, reduce its dependence on oil, and release more oil for export, but it...

Against the backdrop of the visit to Washington by President Macron and the scheduled visit by Chancellor Merkel in an effort to persuade US President Trump not to leave the JCPOA, this article zeros in on the key issues that need to be addressed by the allies. Guided by what is not only necessary but feasible at this late stage, the topics addressed include missiles, inspections, lack of transparency, sanctions, and the sunset provisions. Everything turns on political will – if it exists, agreeing to the proposed steps should not...