Three weeks after the outbreak of a wave of unrest across Iran—which has claimed thousands of lives and led to the arrest of thousands more—the US administration faces a series of operational decisions in light of threats issued by President Trump toward the regime in Tehran. The president’s threats began with a public statement that the United States would come “to rescue” the protesters if the regime continued to employ lethal violence against them. This escalated with an additional tweet on January 13 in which he wrote that “help...
Despite being subjected to one of the harshest sanctions regimes in the world, Iran has succeeded in building a sophisticated, law-evading mechanism to support its aviation industry, which reflects the broader principles of the shadow economy it has developed. This article maps the operational architecture of that mechanism, based on using front and shell companies in countries with little transparency, layered ownership registries, bursts of activity designed to complete transfers within short timeframes, and flight-path planning...
The 70-year diplomatic relationship between Iran and Thailand has seen ups and downs in recent years. However, Iran’s desire to expand its influence over Thailand’s Shiite population and exploit it for its own interests had not changed over time. In the past year, these efforts have intensified significantly. This paper examines the mechanisms Iran employs to entrench its control over Shiite religious and educational institutions in Thailand, among them sending religious scholars from Iran to ensure that these institutions follow...
The recent visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Tunisia adds to the mutual decision to abolish visa requirements between the two countries, underscoring Iran’s strong interest in expanding its influence in North Africa in general, and in Tunisia in particular. For the leadership in Tehran, North Africa represents a highly significant geo-strategic region that allows Iran to advance a variety of political, economic, and security interests. Therefore, without a diplomatic move to prevent Iran from pursuing this goal,...
Recent reports from the United Kingdom and Italy about the involvement of Iran’s PressTV television channel in sophisticated influence operations in those countries attest to the ongoing efforts of Iran’s state propaganda network—operated under the supervision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting—to weaken Western nations and amplify the Iranian narrative within them. The ability to curb Iran’s global influence depends, among other things, on the international community’s capacity to disrupt this elaborate system that Iran...
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Overview
The Middle East is undergoing an unprecedented transition sparked by Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack and the subsequent regional war. The war in the Gaza Strip provided Iran with its first real opportunity to implement its “unity of the fronts” concept through the simultaneous, coordinated activation of several fronts against Israel and the United States. Iran hoped to avoid direct involvement and the consequences thereof. Ultimately, however, it failed to employ its network of proxies to force Israel to...
The policy of Moscow and Beijing, which consisted of fairly mild condemnations of the Israeli and US strikes in Iran, sparked criticism and disappointment in Tehran. It also reinforced the Iranian assessment that its reliance on Russia and China remains limited, particularly in the event of a military confrontation with Israel and the United States. Nevertheless, it is clear that for now, Iran has no viable alternative to continuing its political, economic, and security partnership (as limited as it may be) with Russia and China,...
In recent years, and even more so since October 7, Iran has been conducting influence and interference campaigns targeting the Israeli public. These efforts aim to deepen societal divisions and weaken the country from within. Recently, an aggressive Iranian operation was uncovered, designed to recruit Israelis for espionage, terrorism, and to assist Iran in the event of war. The latest revelations about Iran’s long-standing influence and interference operations in the United Kingdom highlight a common ground between Israel and other...
Moves advanced by the Trump administration toward countries in Latin America—aimed at strengthening US security, particularly by accelerating the campaign against drug trafficking and illegal immigration into its territory—create a unique opportunity to mobilize the administration to take actions that challenge Iran’s expanding presence on the continent.
Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman’s visit to Tehran in April and his meeting with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, were intended to underscore and deepen the renewed relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran on the second anniversary of their restoration. The visit took place against the backdrop of talks between Iran and the United States aimed at reaching a nuclear agreement, along with reports of a possible Israeli and/or American strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Although both Saudi Arabia and Iran have an interest in...
As the renewal of nuclear talks approaches, the Iranian leadership faces an increasingly sharp dilemma over the strategy it should adopt regarding its nuclear program. On one side, figures from the “moderate” camp are urging Tehran’s leadership to take a conciliatory approach that would lead to a nuclear agreement with the United States in exchange for concessions on its uranium enrichment program. On the other side, voices within the “conservative” camp are growing louder, advocating for Iran to reconsider its nuclear strategy and...
Recently, the Houthis have adopted a strategy aimed at exhausting the Israeli population, thereby increasing pressure on the Israeli government to halt its military campaign in the Gaza Strip. Given that Israel’s current approach to countering the Yemeni terrorist organization has been ineffective, it would be prudent to significantly intensify coalition and Israeli efforts against the group’s leadership, as well as its missile production and launch capabilities. Targeting Iran, however, would contradict American interests, risk...
