Far from the public eye and the media, the importance of Yemen as an arena of struggle between regional powers is growing. The primary threat to Yemen in recent years is linked to the ongoing fighting in the country’s northwestern region. Fighting erupted again in early August, adding another dimension of instability to a country already confronting a separatist struggle in the south and global jihad activity, and that has lately become a way station for smugglers of arms destined in part for Hamas.
The (likely) penultimate report of outgoing IAEA director general ElBaradei on the nuclear situation in Iran was leaked to the press on Friday, August 28, 2009. The report contains information that Iran is pressing forward with its uranium enrichment activity, while steadily increasing its capacity to do so. With regard to evidence of “possible military dimensions” of its nuclear program, the report notes lack of progress in clarifying with Iran the outstanding questions regarding information on its development of the...
The talks between Iran and Russia over the supply of the S-300 defense systems were public knowledge already in 1998, but despite various reports over the years about a contract and the actual supply of the systems, it seems that the contract was only signed in 2006 and was announced officially by both the Iran and Russia in the course of 2007.
The reality of the Iranian nuclear issue and the possibility that as a result of America’s new policy Russia will find itself outside the game have created a dilemma for Russia. So far Russia has assumed an ambivalent position: on the one hand it expresses concern over Iran’s possibly becoming a nuclear power, denies any involvement in the process, and seemingly agrees that it is necessary to stop Iran, and on the other hand, expresses sweeping support for Iran, which includes active participation in the development of...
Statements made by US President Obama and Vice President Biden in the first week of July regarding the US position on Iran elevated in particular the issue of whether a green light had been provided to Israel for an attack on Iran. The immediate question of a possible green light was raised by Biden when he said in an interview from Iraq that the US cannot dictate to another country what they can and cannot do when they determine that they are existentially threatened. The issue was then put to rest when Obama absolutely denied that...
In a number of respects, the current internal conflict in Iran should be the source of much concern to the leaders of the Islamic regime. Demonstrations and riots erupt in Iran every few years, protesting primarily intervention by the regime in the life of the individual or the economic situation. However, in terms of the number of participants, the duration of the disturbances, the number of casualties, and the expression of anger and determination by the participants, recent events exceed all previous episodes since the 1979...
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s victory in Iran’s presidential elections is in itself no surprise. The surprise lies both in the huge margin by which he defeated his main opponent, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, and in that he earned his victory in the first round of voting, although the impression in the final pre-election days was that Mousavi was garnering growing support in the cities. Nonetheless, Ahmadinejad had important political assets, and these netted him the victory. He is especially popular among the middle and lower classes in...
With the countries of the world looking on, Iran reached its next serious milestone: the accumulation of enough low enriched uranium (LEU) to enable it to further enrich it and produce one Significant Quantity (S.Q.), or 25 kilograms, of high enriched uranium (HEU). This is considered the quantity that is sufficient for the production of one core for an HEU-based nuclear explosive device. The Iranians reached this milestone some months earlier than expected, due mainly to their efficiency in installing and operating a large number of...
Things are heating up in the Middle-East nuclear/political arena. Iran is resisting any possibility of honestly negotiating the nuclear issue with the west/US alliance, the US is hinting at possible concessions to Iran, Israeli sources are talking possible offensive action against Iranian nuclear installations, and US officials are against such action. Egypt is confronting Iran and instability is in the air. Perhaps more than the recent US elections, the timetable is now dictated by the closing deadline of Iran’s nuclear...
The direct target of the Egyptian regime’s attacks in the past two weeks is Hizbollah and its terror arm in Egypt. However, the Egyptians themselves do not conceal the fact that in their view Hizbollah is merely the tool, and that their main concern is the driving force behind the organization – Iran.
North Korea’s rocket launch in early April became the latest trigger of a by now well-established pattern of drawing quick comparisons between the two primary nuclear proliferators, Iran and North Korea. The fact that intensive international efforts to stem the nuclear ambitions of both states have unfolded in parallel since 2002 no doubt encourages this tendency. Admittedly, a certain amount of reciprocal learning likely occurs – both between the proliferating states and within the international community when it assesses the...
In February 2009, the American intelligence community published the unclassified portion of the intelligence assessment regarding threats directed against the United States. The intelligence report, signed by Admiral Dennis Blair, the new Director of National Intelligence, includes a section on the Iranian nuclear issue. The new intelligence assessment does not differ in essence from the December 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on the Iranian issue, which sparked much criticism in Israel and the United States for...
