As international activity surrounding the Iranian nuclear program intensifies, it seems that the question of a possible war on Iran is taking center stage on Russia’s agenda as well. There is evidence of heightened diplomatic activity, along with military preparations and an expanded public debate reflecting differences of opinion within the Russian establishment.
The international media abounds with headlines on similar assessments by the Israeli and US intelligence agencies that the Iranian regime has not yet decided to produce nuclear weapons, as well as the apparent disagreements between the US and Israeli administrations on the seriousness of the situation. Any differences of opinion, however, are grounded in the knowledge of basic facts on the status of the Iranian program. What follows is a review of the basic facts, based on the recent IAEA reports – and recognizing that because of the...
The past two decades have seen the emergence of new nuclear proliferation challenges and exposed the weakness of the international instruments available to stop them. This monograph analyzes diplomatic strategies for confronting determined nuclear proliferators, focusing on the case studies of Iran and North Korea and the strategies that were devised and implemented by strong international actors in their attempts to curb the military intentions of these two proliferators over the decade beginning in 2002 – when both crises erupted...
There is no doubt that in the March 5, 2012 meeting between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu in Washington, the subject of Iran dominated all other issues on both leaders’ agendas. This meeting, the speeches delivered by both leaders at the 2012 AIPAC Policy Conference, and various recent media interviews make it possible to sharpen some ideas regarding the United States-Israel-Iran triangle.
One year after the uprisings known as the “Arab spring” erupted, this collection of fifteen articles explores what is evident thus far as to the regional and international ramifications of the upheavals, with special reference to the potential ramifications for Israeli national security. Among the questions addressed: Why did the upheavals occur now, and what do they portend for the future? How have the major powers and certain Arab states, ostensibly spared the turmoil, responded to the events? Where do Iran and Turkey...
There is no doubt that for two reasons Iran has been under mounting pressure in recent months. One, Western governments, led by the European threat to stop importing Iranian oil, have begun a move designed to impose more severe sanctions on Iran in the coming months, targeting especially oil and finance. Two, there are more and more signs that Israel is considering an attack on Iran’s nuclear installations in the foreseeable future. In early 2012 it appeared that the American administration also put the military option back on the...
In a February 5, 2012 interview with NBC, President Obama was asked if Israel intends to attack Iran. The President answered that he doesn’t think Israel has decided what it should do about Iran. The President clarified that Israel, like America, thinks that Iran must stop its nuclear development program. Israel, stated the President, is “rightly very concerned” about Iran’s nuclear program. The United States is “working in lockstep” with Israel in order to prevent the nuclearization of Iran.
Since the rise of the ayatollah regime in Iran in 1979 and its role in the establishment of Hizbollah in Lebanon in 1982, the two – in the context of their patron-protégé relationship – have used terrorism as a tool in their struggles with enemies at home and abroad. Since the terrorist attacks in the United States, and in light of many states’ reduced tolerance for terrorism exported from their sovereign territories, the Iranian regime reined in its terrorist acts and those of its protégé on the international arena. However, the...
Iran is playing down the latest EU decision on the imposition of additional sanctions, including an embargo on Iranian oil imports that will take full effect by July 2012, but the summer date constitutes a clear deadline for reaching some sort of agreement with the West. Iran is apparently beginning to feel the pressure of the sanctions imposed by the Security Council and the additional sanctions imposed by the US and the EU, evidenced by Tehran’s agreement to renew talks on the nuclear issue. The experience of previous...
There have been a number of indications of late that the US is adopting a new and considerably more determined approach to Iran’s nuclear program. These include stepped-up pressure on Iran through sanctions without waiting for Russia and China to “come on board,” as well as a series of covert actions that are specifically targeting different elements of Iran’s nuclear program. The US is suspected of either leading this effort or cooperating with others in executing it.
The book includes thirteen analytical essays written by INSS researchers. Focus is on Israel’s strategic environment, particularly in the wake of the major changes experienced in the Middle East commonly known as the Arab spring. The ongoing Palestinian issue and Iran’s nuclear program remain at the fore of the challenges facing Israel. Other issues explored in the volume include the “new” Middle East and the role of the superpowers, Turkey, and questions of particular urgency to Israel, including the...
