President Obama’s public statements after the announcement of the JCPA in Vienna on July 14, 2015 indicate willingness to enter into a serious discussion with the Israeli government over the implications of the agreement for Israel’s security. This dialogue is vital for Israel, and should not be confined to the military aspects of Iran’s nuclear program and Israel’s qualitative military edge. It is imperative that Israel realize that though the agreement has become a reality, the debate in the US and...
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear agreement signed in Vienna between Iran and the P5+1 (the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) on July 14, 2015 has been heralded as an historic event by both its advocates and detractors. This collection brings together thoughts from the researchers at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) on different aspects of the agreement and its strategic consequences for Israel, regional security in the Middle East, and global order....
In the run-up to the June 30, 2015 deadline for a comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, one of the key issues in contention has ostensibly been resolved. The P5+1 have reportedly agreed among themselves on a mechanism for so-called “snapback” sanctions. In principle, this snapback mechanism would enable the six powers to restore sanctions on Iran were Iran to violate its commitments under the deal. Faced with an Iranian breach of the agreement, the P5+1 face three challenges: adjudication, enforcement,...
The Obama administration’s strong desire to reach an agreement with Iran on the nuclear issue, along with the administration’s perceived need to respond to the criticism leveled against it following the Lausanne understandings, have led it to sharpen the rhetoric invalidating the military option against Iran. This position by the US administration requires the advancement of a clear alternative position based on a credible military option that is capable of setting the Iranian nuclear program back many years; senior US military...
The issue that seems to have garnered the most interest and raised the most controversy at the 2015 NPT Review Conference was the provision regarding the possible establishment of a Weapons of Mass Destruction-free zone (WMDFZ) for the Middle East. On the final day of the conference, consensus for the full draft RevCon final document was not secured due to the dispute over the WMDFZ conference: it was on this basis that the US, joined by Britain and Canada, withheld its support for the document. Israel is a short term beneficiary of...
Recent statements by President Obama on the Israeli-Palestinian political process include a number of interesting and even new aspects. First, the President demonstrated a clear intention to maintain a balanced approach toward Israel and the Palestinians. Second, his comments reflected his inclination to draw away from his commitment to achieve a comprehensive Israeli-Palestinian agreement – a goal he had embraced since his entry into office. Rather, he expressed clear support for measured and limited steps, mainly of an economic...
The long campaign for the US presidency is well underway, and the spate of campaign launches in recent weeks formalizes the so-called “invisible primary,” in which candidates jockey behind the scenes to raise money, hire campaign staff, and win over key activists. At this point, the key takeaway for Israel is that the pro-Israel consensus has remained solid at the apex of US politics. The arena to watch is the Democratic side. Strong open criticism of Israel among some left wing activists has already weakened...
The coming years will likely see a test of relations between the US and the Gulf states. Nonetheless, it is doubtful whether the conciliatory declarations of the recent summit and the sale of advanced weapons will be enough to put the relations back on track and alleviate the monarchies’ anxiety about what they view as the mistaken strategic direction pursued by the US toward Iran. Still, it is possible that the summit contributed to an understanding by the administration that it must devise a policy to roll back Iranian involvement...
Even if the document of principles made public by the US administration is fully implemented, it is not likely to achieve President Obama’s goal, i.e., “to cut off every pathway that Iran could take to develop a nuclear weapon.” Rather, the agreement would serve as the first step in a much broader strategy designed to deter Iran from violating the agreement by means of capabilities in identifying and stopping Iranian violations. Therefore, the announcement on the understandings achieved and the continuation of the negotiations should...
The six scenarios analyzed in the article indicate that an agreement between the world powers and Iran on the Iranian nuclear program based on the Lausanne parameters with necessary amendments is preferable to the current situation, even if it is not “a good deal.” The alternative to the improved Lausanne agreement would consist of severe and effective sanctions that may possibly result in a better agreement but might also lead to the realization of the dangers inherent in a failure of the talks, Iran’s continued nuclear activity,...
The Corker-Cardin bill approved unanimously by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on April 14, 2015 is a compromise that will allow President Barack Obama to continue negotiating with Iran and even conclude an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program. For its part, Israel finds itself in a situation in which it cannot try to change the agreement formulated between the Republicans and Democrats in the Committee in any fundamental way without at least the tacit support of the White House. Any criticism of the bill on the part of...
Following the April 2, 2015 statement on parameters toward a comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear program formulated between the P5+1 and Iran, the Israeli government announced its demand that the final agreement include Iran’s recognition of Israel. President Obama was quick to reject the condition, arguing that it amounts to Israel’s demand that no agreement be signed unless Iran undertakes a comprehensive reform of its regime. Nonetheless, this does not mean that there was no point in Israel raising the issue. On the...
