Publications on Syria

During his recent talks in Washington with Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Russian defense minister Anatoly Serdyukov announced that Russia would supply Syria with P-800 Yakhont cruise missiles.

I will address the topic of Syria and discuss its potential role as part of the solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict.

In light of talk about the northern sector heating up and the possibility of a deterioration into war, the question of the change in the threat facing Israel – from the longstanding situation in which the state’s reference scenario was a surprise attack for the purpose of conquering either limited or more extended territory to the new reality that includes extensive rocket and missile fire at Israeli population centers together with the use of terrorism and guerilla tactics – again rises to the surface.

Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Syria on May 10-11 was the first by a Russian president; President Asad has already visited Russia three times (January 2005, December 2006, and August 2008). During the visit, agreements on aviation, scientific and information technology cooperation, tourism, and the environment were signed, as was a memorandum regarding cooperation between the two countries’ chambers of commerce. The leaders discussed infrastructure projects in energy, and Middle East political affairs, such as the peace process,...

According to recent report, in a meeting held a few weeks ago with a group of British policy analysts, Syrian foreign minister Walid Muallem said:”For peacemaking, Israel needs to be ready to recognize that Syria is entitled to every inch of the Golan, but we wish to engage in talks.” “For us,” he continued, “the land is sacred and a matter of honour.” Later in the meeting, he mentioned a possible outline for withdrawal from the Golan Heights in tandem with stages of normalization with Israel:...

The Ba’ath regime’s primary concern is its own survival. After nearly forty years of rule by the Asad dynasty, it does not face any serious domestic threats, but it is fully aware of the underlying instability of a regime dominated by members of a minority community. Bashar al-Asad, who succeeded his father in June 2000 as Syria’s president, is more sure-footed and in firmer control than he was a few years ago, but both his persona and the full scope of his ability remain enigmatic to Syrian and foreign observers...

The year 2008 was marked by renewed activity along the Israeli-Syrian negotiations track, due to a change in Israel’s approach. In preceding years Syrian president Bashar al-Asad repeatedly stated his goal to renew negotiations with Israel, but Israel showed no interest. After Ehud Olmert assumed his position as acting prime minister once Prime Minister Sharon was incapacitated and even after he won the elections in March 2006 and established a coalition government, the policy he chose was at its core a policy of continuation....

The following article touches on seven points that are conclusions of sorts from three central military episodes of recent years: Operation Defensive Shield in the West Bank in April 2002, the Second Lebanon War, and Operation Cast Lead. A comparison of these events allows us to formulate general conclusions relevant to similar events in the future. Six of the issues refer primarily to the past and the present, but have ramifications for the future. The seventh is an attempt to assess what would happen should a Third Lebanon War...

After three years of repeated delays, Syria is scheduled this week to launch trading on the Damascus stock exchange. Had the authorities advanced the gala opening slightly and had investors been able to raise capital from foreign investors starting a few weeks ago, presumably their shares would have registered nice gains in light of Senator John Kerry’s visit to Damascus. Even though the Syrian regime has argued stubbornly for the last four years that the economic war waged by the Bush administration against Syria is not...

On February 19, 2009, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general (DG) delivered to the constituent membership two periodic reports, on Iran’s nuclear program and on the progress in assessing Syria’s activities at the bombed site of al-Kibar, prior to September 2007. They both merit comments on their findings.

There are two outstanding issues on the table for the forthcoming IAEA Board of Governors meeting: the nuclear programs of Syria and Iran. The IAEA report on the Syrian issue that finally came out on November 19, 2008 gave a detailed summary of its findings but omitted two important items: the technical details of the sampled uranium particles found in the vicinity of the Syrian reactor site at Dair Alzour (or al-Kibar, as called by US reports ) and the unequivocal statement that the site housed a nuclear reactor under construction...

The book includes ten analytical essays written by INSS researchers that dwell on Israel’s strategic environment in the period under review. The ongoing challenges represented by the Palestinian issue and the Iranian nuclear program are well documented, as well as developments elsewhere in the Arab and Muslim world and in Israel.