President Rivlin began his address by stating that he had received the Strategic Assessment of INSS and had met with its researchers. If he could choose two words to describe the strategic situation they would be escalation and complexity, and they characterize the security and political situation for the past year and the foreseeable future.
The Iranian involvement in the region is one example. Iran experienced failures at the Northern front and in the 2nd half of the year, the trend has changed. Some think that the regional Iranian plans were stopped because of Israel. Therefore, Iran is expected to escalate its activities against Israel in the north, in Syria and Lebanon.
The continuing Iranian experiments in ballistic missiles are a controversy with the EU states. In a conversation with President Macron of France, President Rivlin said they spoke about Lebanon and this issue. He acknowledged that the situation in the European arena is very complex and that red lines must be placed in front of the Iranians. The Main question is how this can be done.
The second example raised by President Rivlin is the Palestinian arena and Hamas. If in past, Gaza Strip was launching of rockets, they have added two new weapons: mass demonstrations, sometimes with armed people and the launching of explosive kites into Israel. The demonstrations have been quieted thanks to efforts of security forces and Egypt. Gaza however is still boiling over, and the humanitarian crisis fueled by politics of hate inside Palestine and against Israel is very grave. There is also the conflict between Fatah and Hamas.
In terms of the Palestinian arena and Hamas, the combination of military force, partial containment, and Israeli-Egyptian diplomacy has been successful, but the public will not accept containment, as it means difficulty on the home front. However, decisions are made according to Israeli interest even if goes against any future regional vision.
President Rivlin acknowledged that Hamas will not disappear, as the spirit of Hamas and its people are now in Judea and Samaria. Today some of its leadership and the people see Hamas as the solution, creating a new complexity for Israel.
The third examples of escalation and complexity is the internal political arena in Israel. President Rivlin mentioned concerns about the complexity of an election campaign in democratic state, and fears of cyberattacks in the election campaign, which would expose population to messages and manipulations in order to confuse the voters.
In addition, the Israeli political arena is more complicated and radicalized than ever, noting the delegitimization of groups from right and left. What used to be political rivalry is now becoming real enemies.
President Rivlin stated that the most serious concern is that the government and justice system have become part of the issue of elections and this trend is dangerous.
Diplomatic and security assets that Israel managed to create have helped Israel to cope with many challenges. But according to President Rivlin, we cannot just react; rather, Israel must take initiative. He acknowledged that INSS is correct in their annual assessment that Israel needs a new and updated political and military thinking and initiative. In order to shape regional arena, we must consolidate strategy and take action.