Publications
Memorandum No. 137, Tel Aviv: Institute for National Security Studies, May 2014
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Contents
Part I. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: Past Dynamics and Current Assessments
Forging Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities for the NPT / Rose Gottemoeller
The NPT Review Conferences / Harald Müller
The NPT toward 2015: NAM and Non-Nuclear Weapon States Perspectives /Rebecca Johnson
Don’t Beat a Dead Horse: The Past, Present, and Future Failures of the NPT / Carlo Masala
A "Bank Run" on the NPT: Preventing a Crisis of Confidence / Cameron S. Brown
Part II. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: Will the NPT Survive?
Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime: A Rethink? / Ephraim Asculai
Too Early to Eulogize the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime /Tamar Malz-Ginsburg
Whither the International Nuclear Order? / Emmanuelle Blanc
Part III. Confronting Proliferation at the Global Level
Recalibrating President Obama's Global Zero Vision / Michael Nacht
Changes in the International System and their Impact on Proliferation / Yair Evron
Russia’s Nonproliferation Policy / Anton Khlopkov
Pakistan's Security Perceptions and their Adverse Impact on the Global Nuclear Order / Nir Reichental
Part IV. The Verification Challenge
The IAEA Verifications System in Perspective / Olli Heinonen
Verifying the Prohibition on Chemical Weapons: The Relevance of OPCW Processes to the IAEA / Jean Pascal Zanders
Part V. Perspectives on the Middle East
Nonproliferation and Regional Security: An Israeli Policy Perspective / Jeremy Issacharoff
Security Asymmetries in the Middle East / Shimon Stein
The Need for a Regional Security Regime in the Middle East / Shlomo Brom
A WMD-Free Zone in the Middle East: The Main Challenge is not the NPT / Benjamin Hautecouverture
Preface
This collection of articles is an outgrowth of the 2013 annual arms control conference held under the auspices of the Arms Control and Regional Security Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv. The conference, “The Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime at a Crossroads,” took place on February 11-12, 2013, and was held in conjunction with the Paris-based Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique.
The articles compiled in this volume grapple with questions and dilemmas that arise from a growing sense in recent years that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has reached a critical juncture, and that its continued role as the centerpiece of the nuclear nonproliferation regime is at risk. This is the result of a process that has unfolded gradually since the end of the Cold War, which also spelled the end of the bipolar global structure that, in the minds of many, helped keep nuclear proliferation in check.
The tensions that exist between state interests, norms, and notions of collective security regarding nuclear nonproliferation efforts lie at the heart of the articles that comprise the opening two sections of this volume. The first of these sections focuses on interests that have driven the NPT from its inception to its current possibly precarious status; the second section considers future prospects for the treaty. In the third section, authors direct their attention to proliferation and nonproliferation trends at the global level, specifically, the impact of changes in the international system, President Obama’s embrace of the global zero agenda, Russia’s perspective on nonproliferation, and the impact of Pakistan on the global nuclear order. An effective verification mechanism is critical for ensuring that states uphold their nonproliferation commitments to the NPT, and the two chapters of the following section focus specifically on this sometimes elusive goal. The volume’s closing section is devoted to the Middle East, and focuses in particular on the terms and conditions for establishing a regional security regime, and the problems encountered vis-à-vis the initiative adopted at the 2010 NPT Review Conference to hold a conference on a weapons of mass destruction-free zone in the Middle East.