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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visitedRussia recently and met with President Vladimir Putin. As expected, Iran wasthe major issue discussed, but it is still too early to draw any conclusionsabout possible practical results on the Iranian topic. Beyond Iran, however, thiswas an important encounter for both Russia and Israel, with potential significantramifications for the international system.

The visit took place against the backdropof events in Syria and Iran that have given rise to important new developmentsin the Middle East, including Russia’s attempts to forge closer ties withseveral nations with which bilateral relations were strained, such as SaudiArabia, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan – and Israel. This Russian posture does not representa new policy, but until recently these efforts were met with limited enthusiasm.Now it seems that significant changes are at work, a fact rife withramifications for the future shape of the regional order.

Russia, competing for influence in theregion, has of late been an active presence in most of the regional processes, projectingself-confidence and looking the United States straight in the eye. This comeson the heels of an unstable period when it suffered the consequences of theArab Spring, which eroded most of its assets in the region and sidelined it,together with Iran, Syria, and Hizbollah, its radical axis partners. Effective useof the Syrian civil war has allowed Moscow to arrest its regional regression,while in part containing the pressure from the constellation of Sunni nationsoperating against it with the backing of the West. The climax of this regionalsaga was an effective Russian maneuver surrounding the Syrian chemical weaponsissue, which created the possibility of maintaining – at least for now – theAssad regime and the radical axis, while upgrading Russian’s standing on theinternational arena at the expense of the United States.

Until recently, Russia’s practical achievementsin the Middle East have been fairly modest. It seems that in practice, Russiafinds itself on the outside vis-à-vis most of the issues that draw the attentionof the international system. This is true for the Israeli-Palestinian peaceprocess as well as the Iranian issue, whereby Iran’s recent repositioning towardthe United States threatens the very existence of the radical anti-Western axisoperating under the Russian umbrella. But currently here are signs of reversals.Events in the Syrian and Iranian sectors have shifted the orientation of someof the regional players that feel betrayed and threatened by the conduct of theUnited States in their sphere. Since then, several moves have been made, someinitiated by Russia – which since the start of the Arab Spring has been waitingfor such opportunities – and some initiated by various Middle East states.These countries have sent out feelers to Russia, which has used them to renewthe dialogue that was interrupted by the regional upheavals. Some feel thatthese changes have the potential to affect the shaping of the future regionalorder.

It is already possible to point to a seriesof developments in terms of joint ventures between Russia and several regionalnations. The most prominent is the recent about-face in the Russian-Egyptianrelationship. In recent weeks, various delegations have come and gone,including visits by Russia’s foreign affairs and defense ministers as well assenior personnel from the security and intelligence establishments; there iseven talk of a state visit to Egypt by President Putin. It has also beenreported that a large weapons purchase, to be financed in part by Saudi Arabia,is in the offing.

Russia’s relations with Saudi Arabia havelikewise shifted. Until recently, there was palpable tension between the two,given that Russia was the principal supporter of both the Shiite axis andPresident Assad, and that Saudi Arabia worked against Russia’s interests in theregion and elsewhere. But the current American stance on Syria and Iran droveSaudi Arabia to look for new partners to balance its foreign policy. As aresult, recent months have seen a volte-face in Russian-Saudi relations, and PrinceBandar Ibn Sultan visited Moscow to discuss security cooperation and promoteSaudi Arabian views on Syria.

Iraq, an old-time Russian ally, hasforged even closer relations with Russia since the US withdrawal, includingsecurity cooperation (a large arms deal was signed, although various pressureshave postponed its execution) and economic cooperation, where there is already significantRussian economic activity. Jordan too has recently been more accepting ofRussia’s advances. Though not the first time, the stakes are now higher, with thepurchase of a Russian nuclear reactor at issue. Other joint security ventures arealso under discussion, and there has been talk of a state visit to Russia byKing Abdullah in the near future.

Israel too can be added to the list. Israelhas a long history with Russia, and while Moscow views it as an importantregional actor, relations are frequently affected by Russia’s greater regionalinterests. Russia now views Israel, which is seeking ways to promote itsobjectives on the international arena with emphasis on the Iranian issue, as anentity meriting broader close cooperation, as this can demonstrate Russia’srising status and increasingly dominant regional influence. Cooperation withIsrael, itself an influential regional player and ally of the United States, carriesgreat weight. Moreover, Russia is interested in improving its standing withIran, damaged when Iran turned to the West, and Russia may try to regain lostground by promoting mediation initiatives of its own. Such a success would be afeather in Moscow’s cap, similar to Syrian achievement.

The picture right now is partial only. Whatis clear is that there is extensive Russian political activity. The questionis: given the new regional circumstances, will these efforts yield substantialresults? It seems that underlying new postures toward Russia is Iran’sostensibly rising power, a direct result of a change in US policy alongside asense a weakness projected by the US leadership. But is also seems that thewooing of Russia by regional states is a temporary phenomenon, reflecting thesenations’ actual desire to exert influence on the policy of United States ratherthan to take advantage of opportunities that Russia could provide. Russia neitherpurports to replace the United States, nor can it do so. But for these regionalstates, a relationship with Russia is important in and of itself in order tobalance their foreign affairs, and in the hope that the dialogue with theRussians will impel the United States to reverse its policy. On the other hand,it is also clear that even if its image has lately become somewhat tarnished, theUnited States, will not cede its position of dominance in the Middle East andwill work to make sure Russia does not gain strategic footing in the region. Indeed,it seems that the current US policy on Iran is not a change in direction, rathera move designed to expand its influence on all the regional playerssimultaneously, even if it this comes at the temporary expense of some of theirinterests.

In any case, Russia’s attempts to forgecloser relations with regional nations can reap it significant benefits, evenif it doesn’t change the underlying political axes and the end results arestill uncertain. In a reality in which the anti-Western front established inthe past by Russia is in the process of disintegration, the  contact and the start of cooperation, even iflimited, has the power to contribute to Russia’s future establishment as aninfluential player in the region.

Regarding Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu’svisit was used by the Russians to transmit another message to the internationalcommunity about their country’s rising stature. It was also likely used toexamine the possibility of Russian initiatives on Iran. On the Israeli side,the visit was an opportunity to show its interest in balancing its foreign policyas well as the drive to promote its views on Iran, assuming that Russia stillhas leverage in that arena. Overall, then, the bilateral topics raised duringthe visit are not new, but they are important to the establishment andexpansion of the existing relationship.