Tensions between Hezbollah and Lebanon’s security forces have recently escalated following steps by the Lebanese establishment to limit the organization’s activities. These steps have been taken partly in response to U.S. pressure, and depart from the government’s familiar policy of avoiding violent confrontation with Hezbollah. Following Hezbollah’s entry into the campaign alongside Iran, the Lebanese government made a dramatic decision in March 2026 banning the organization from engaging in military and security activities. So far, however, the authorities have refrained from firmly enforcing the decision, fearing Hezbollah’s threats that such moves would plunge the country into civil war.
The main incident behind the escalation was the seizure, on October 5, by Lebanese security forces of several hundred kilograms of high-grade explosives. The explosives had been smuggled from the Beqaa Valley toward Beirut in a truck carrying two Hezbollah operatives. The incident sparked public outrage in Lebanon over fears that moving the explosives to Beirut was intended for assassination attempts against the organization’s opponents. Hezbollah admitted that the explosives belonged to it, but denied any intention to use them inside Lebanon, and asked for them to be returned so it could use them against Israel. So far, its request has not been met. Following President Joseph Aoun’s demand to expand the investigation into the matter, an arrest warrant was issued for a senior Hezbollah official—the head of the organization’s Coordination and Liaison Committee—and his assistant, both suspected of involvement in the smuggling. Hezbollah responded with an implicit threat, saying it would consider changing the "boundaries of internal confrontation" and promoted displays of force and protests across Beirut.
Several other incidents have also contributed to tensions. On October 16, Hezbollah gunmen tried to prevent a court-ordered search of a warehouse in Beirut’s Dahiya district where medicines from Iran were being stored. They left after additional Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) troops arrived at the location. In another unusual incident, a tunnel was discovered by chance east of Beirut. It was a small tunnel whose excavation had only just begun, and no weapons were found there. Still, its location far from the border with Israel raises questions about the organization’s intentions.
Meanwhile, reports said that the LAF and Internal Security Forces had reinforced their presence and set up checkpoints throughout Beirut’s southern suburbs and on roads leading to them, in an effort to prevent an escalation into armed clashes. In response, Hezbollah reinforced the presence of its operatives in the Beirut area, and its mouthpieces accused the Lebanese leadership of acceding to U.S. and Israeli dictations. Hezbollah member of parliament Ibrahim al-Moussawi warned on October 19 that Lebanon’s streets were on the brink of an explosion. On October 20, Al Jadeed TV station reported that Hezbollah had raised its alert level amid fears of escalation, both within Lebanon and vis-à-vis Israel.
The recent events are a test of strength for both sides. For the Lebanese leadership, the question is how far it is willing to go, and what risks it is willing to take in a possible internal confrontation, in order to advance implementation of the framework agreement. For Hezbollah, the question is how much it will tolerate in light of the threat of a change in the balance of power in Lebanon to its detriment. For now, despite its threats, which are intended to deter Lebanon’s leaders, Hezbollah still appears to hope to avoid a violent internal conflict, given its current weakness and the possibility of renewed fighting with Iran, in which it may be forced to take part. At the same time, it is laying the groundwork and preparing for the possibility that it will have to act if Lebanon’s leadership further restricts its freedom of action and turns to using force against it.
Tensions between Hezbollah and Lebanon’s security forces have recently escalated following steps by the Lebanese establishment to limit the organization’s activities. These steps have been taken partly in response to U.S. pressure, and depart from the government’s familiar policy of avoiding violent confrontation with Hezbollah. Following Hezbollah’s entry into the campaign alongside Iran, the Lebanese government made a dramatic decision in March 2026 banning the organization from engaging in military and security activities. So far, however, the authorities have refrained from firmly enforcing the decision, fearing Hezbollah’s threats that such moves would plunge the country into civil war.
The main incident behind the escalation was the seizure, on October 5, by Lebanese security forces of several hundred kilograms of high-grade explosives. The explosives had been smuggled from the Beqaa Valley toward Beirut in a truck carrying two Hezbollah operatives. The incident sparked public outrage in Lebanon over fears that moving the explosives to Beirut was intended for assassination attempts against the organization’s opponents. Hezbollah admitted that the explosives belonged to it, but denied any intention to use them inside Lebanon, and asked for them to be returned so it could use them against Israel. So far, its request has not been met. Following President Joseph Aoun’s demand to expand the investigation into the matter, an arrest warrant was issued for a senior Hezbollah official—the head of the organization’s Coordination and Liaison Committee—and his assistant, both suspected of involvement in the smuggling. Hezbollah responded with an implicit threat, saying it would consider changing the "boundaries of internal confrontation" and promoted displays of force and protests across Beirut.
Several other incidents have also contributed to tensions. On October 16, Hezbollah gunmen tried to prevent a court-ordered search of a warehouse in Beirut’s Dahiya district where medicines from Iran were being stored. They left after additional Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) troops arrived at the location. In another unusual incident, a tunnel was discovered by chance east of Beirut. It was a small tunnel whose excavation had only just begun, and no weapons were found there. Still, its location far from the border with Israel raises questions about the organization’s intentions.
Meanwhile, reports said that the LAF and Internal Security Forces had reinforced their presence and set up checkpoints throughout Beirut’s southern suburbs and on roads leading to them, in an effort to prevent an escalation into armed clashes. In response, Hezbollah reinforced the presence of its operatives in the Beirut area, and its mouthpieces accused the Lebanese leadership of acceding to U.S. and Israeli dictations. Hezbollah member of parliament Ibrahim al-Moussawi warned on October 19 that Lebanon’s streets were on the brink of an explosion. On October 20, Al Jadeed TV station reported that Hezbollah had raised its alert level amid fears of escalation, both within Lebanon and vis-à-vis Israel.
The recent events are a test of strength for both sides. For the Lebanese leadership, the question is how far it is willing to go, and what risks it is willing to take in a possible internal confrontation, in order to advance implementation of the framework agreement. For Hezbollah, the question is how much it will tolerate in light of the threat of a change in the balance of power in Lebanon to its detriment. For now, despite its threats, which are intended to deter Lebanon’s leaders, Hezbollah still appears to hope to avoid a violent internal conflict, given its current weakness and the possibility of renewed fighting with Iran, in which it may be forced to take part. At the same time, it is laying the groundwork and preparing for the possibility that it will have to act if Lebanon’s leadership further restricts its freedom of action and turns to using force against it.