A Pew Research Center survey conducted at the end of March and published last week indicates that a majority of the American public—including Republicans under the age of 50—view Israel unfavorably or very unfavorably. Additional, as-yet unpublished data that we present here for the first time courtesy of Pew paints an even more troubling picture. The overall downward trend masks a collapse in Israel’s standing among younger Americans, including among groups that many in Israel view as reliable bastions of support.
Detailed data show that among those aged 18–29, the share holding an unfavorable or very unfavorable view of Israel is:
• Overall sample: 75% (and 67% among ages 30–49)
• Democrats and Democratic-leaning: 85% (and 83% among ages 30–49)
• Republicans and Republican-leaning: 64% (and 52% among ages 30–49)
A breakdown by religious affiliation likewise reveals deep erosion among younger cohorts:
• White evangelicals under 50: 50% unfavorable / 47% favorable
• White evangelicals 50+: 20% / 77%
• White non-evangelical Protestants under 50: 70% / 29%
• White non-evangelical Protestants 50+: 53% / 46%
• Catholics under 50: 74% / 22%
• Catholics 50+: 50% / 46%
• Unaffiliated under 50: 80% / 18%
• Unaffiliated 50+: 68% / 30%
Due to statistical limitations related to sample size, it is not possible to further disaggregate religious subgroups by age. That said, it is likely that evangelicals under 30 pull down overall support for Israel within this community. As a rule, white evangelicals are the most pro-Israel constituency outside the Jewish community, and this survey joins earlier findings pointing to rising negative perceptions of Israel among younger members of this group.
At the same time, although the Catholic community has not traditionally been a central pillar of support for Israel, the growing prominence of Vice President JD Vance and other conservative Catholics within the elites of the new American right increases the community’s importance. Although the data presented here do not directly capture the views of conservative Catholics, they do underscore the need to deepen our understanding of both their views and of trends among Catholics as a whole.
Bottom line: These data point to a significant threat to one of the foundations of Israel’s national security. Alongside a series of surveys published in recent years, they suggest that there is currently no young cohort within the general U.S. population that can be said to view Israel positively. Even among older groups, a negative image of Israel is becoming entrenched. If this trend continues, it could very soon produce a reality in which Israel lacks a stable political base of support in either party.
The deterioration in Israel’s standing among the broader American public is compounded by changes within the Jewish community. The organized Jewish community, which has long served as an anchor of support for Israel, is losing political influence, and there is growing frustration among American Jews with Israeli government policy, leading to more negative perceptions of Israel—especially among younger Jews.
Absent a change in current government policy, negative attitudes toward Israel may become entrenched, and support may stabilize at levels much lower than those of previous decades—not only among Democrats, but across both parties. Even if the Republican Party succeeds in maintaining its majority in both chambers of Congress in the November midterm elections, the protective umbrella Israel has long relied upon will no longer be assured.
Efforts to fully capitalize on the current US administration’s support for Israel—while seemingly a natural response to the expectation that future administration’s will be less supportive—may foreclose on the possibility of restoring Israel’s standing in the future and thus risk creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
A Pew Research Center survey conducted at the end of March and published last week indicates that a majority of the American public—including Republicans under the age of 50—view Israel unfavorably or very unfavorably. Additional, as-yet unpublished data that we present here for the first time courtesy of Pew paints an even more troubling picture. The overall downward trend masks a collapse in Israel’s standing among younger Americans, including among groups that many in Israel view as reliable bastions of support.
Detailed data show that among those aged 18–29, the share holding an unfavorable or very unfavorable view of Israel is:
• Overall sample: 75% (and 67% among ages 30–49)
• Democrats and Democratic-leaning: 85% (and 83% among ages 30–49)
• Republicans and Republican-leaning: 64% (and 52% among ages 30–49)
A breakdown by religious affiliation likewise reveals deep erosion among younger cohorts:
• White evangelicals under 50: 50% unfavorable / 47% favorable
• White evangelicals 50+: 20% / 77%
• White non-evangelical Protestants under 50: 70% / 29%
• White non-evangelical Protestants 50+: 53% / 46%
• Catholics under 50: 74% / 22%
• Catholics 50+: 50% / 46%
• Unaffiliated under 50: 80% / 18%
• Unaffiliated 50+: 68% / 30%
Due to statistical limitations related to sample size, it is not possible to further disaggregate religious subgroups by age. That said, it is likely that evangelicals under 30 pull down overall support for Israel within this community. As a rule, white evangelicals are the most pro-Israel constituency outside the Jewish community, and this survey joins earlier findings pointing to rising negative perceptions of Israel among younger members of this group.
At the same time, although the Catholic community has not traditionally been a central pillar of support for Israel, the growing prominence of Vice President JD Vance and other conservative Catholics within the elites of the new American right increases the community’s importance. Although the data presented here do not directly capture the views of conservative Catholics, they do underscore the need to deepen our understanding of both their views and of trends among Catholics as a whole.
Bottom line: These data point to a significant threat to one of the foundations of Israel’s national security. Alongside a series of surveys published in recent years, they suggest that there is currently no young cohort within the general U.S. population that can be said to view Israel positively. Even among older groups, a negative image of Israel is becoming entrenched. If this trend continues, it could very soon produce a reality in which Israel lacks a stable political base of support in either party.
The deterioration in Israel’s standing among the broader American public is compounded by changes within the Jewish community. The organized Jewish community, which has long served as an anchor of support for Israel, is losing political influence, and there is growing frustration among American Jews with Israeli government policy, leading to more negative perceptions of Israel—especially among younger Jews.
Absent a change in current government policy, negative attitudes toward Israel may become entrenched, and support may stabilize at levels much lower than those of previous decades—not only among Democrats, but across both parties. Even if the Republican Party succeeds in maintaining its majority in both chambers of Congress in the November midterm elections, the protective umbrella Israel has long relied upon will no longer be assured.
Efforts to fully capitalize on the current US administration’s support for Israel—while seemingly a natural response to the expectation that future administration’s will be less supportive—may foreclose on the possibility of restoring Israel’s standing in the future and thus risk creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.