After almost two months of silence, in a speech on January 3 marking the fourth anniversary of Soleimani's assassination, Nasrallah referred to developments in the war in Gaza. It was a restrained and self justifying speech, and it could be understood that Nasrallah is not interested in war at this stage. Prominent in his remarks were:
- His desire to deter the Israeli leadership from starting a wide-scale war, while warning of the expected harsh response from Hezbollah if Israel chooses to engage in war and highlighting the organization's determination to use all of the many means at its disposal.
- His promise to respond to the killing of al-Arouri in Beirut, which he attributes to Israel. According to Nasrallah, this constitutes a crime that cannot be forgiven, especially when carried out in Lebanon. Nonetheless, he did not commit to the time and nature of the response.
- His need to justify joining the fighting in order to calm the Lebanese people who oppose it, by emphasizing the fact that Hezbollah, as the defender of Lebanon, serves the interests of its people. Indeed, the organization conducts “calculated fighting” in order not to expand the boundaries of the campaign and pays a heavy price for this in view of the loss of many of its operatives.
- Highlighting the achievements of Hamas on October 7 and the achievements of the “resistance front,” claiming that they are winning the campaign, while Israel falters and fails to achieve the goals of the war. He charged that Israel has suffered heavy losses but has hidden them from the public.
- His quest to influence morale in Israel, presenting a long list of its weaknesses: the collapse of deterrence; damage to intelligence and air supremacy; the inability to achieve a quick victory; the return of the Palestinian issue to the international agenda; the failure of normalization efforts; the severe damage to Israel's international image and the cessation of support for Israel; and the internal weakness (loss of public trust in the leadership, factionalism, the lack of personal security among the population, economic difficulties, the evacuation of the border communities, and the desire of many Israelis to leave the country).
- A major effort to clear Iran of responsibility for the activation of the “resistance front” elements that have chosen to join Hamas (Hezbollah, the Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis). According to Nasrallah, Iran does help and support these elements (financial aid, weapons, training, and strategic advice), but they enjoy the freedom of decision and act completely independently.
On the bottom line, in his speech, Nasrallah has tried to exaggerate the achievements of Hamas and Hezbollah, while ignoring Israel's successes in fighting and trying to sow panic among the Israeli population. However, in the process he in fact revealed his difficulties arising from the results of the campaign on the Lebanese border (few achievements and heavy losses), the internal and international pressure exerted on him, and the desire to avoid an expansion of the war. In tandem, he seeks to remove the responsibility from him, if and when further escalation takes place.
After almost two months of silence, in a speech on January 3 marking the fourth anniversary of Soleimani's assassination, Nasrallah referred to developments in the war in Gaza. It was a restrained and self justifying speech, and it could be understood that Nasrallah is not interested in war at this stage. Prominent in his remarks were:
On the bottom line, in his speech, Nasrallah has tried to exaggerate the achievements of Hamas and Hezbollah, while ignoring Israel's successes in fighting and trying to sow panic among the Israeli population. However, in the process he in fact revealed his difficulties arising from the results of the campaign on the Lebanese border (few achievements and heavy losses), the internal and international pressure exerted on him, and the desire to avoid an expansion of the war. In tandem, he seeks to remove the responsibility from him, if and when further escalation takes place.