Strategic Assessment

This paper considers some of the complexities of US extended nuclear deterrence to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf allies in the face of a nuclear-armed Iran. In the past, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies appeared prepared to remain without independent nuclear arms, perhaps feeling sufficiently protected by US extended nuclear deterrence. This is unlikely to remain the case with a nuclear Iran. The article considers the alternatives available to the Saudi kingdom and the Gulf monarchies: independent nuclear weapons, an extended deterrence arrangement with Pakistan, or perhaps a much reinforced and extended US nuclear umbrella, codified more formally in some new treaty arrangement.