Publications

The following study is the result of a project conducted at the Institute for National Security Studies in 2018–2020 and provides an analysis of scenarios that could, in the future, pose existential threats to the State of Israel, while seeking to encourage governmental and public discussion on the issue. The study analyzed five severe threat scenarios that could potentially become existential: the formation of a regional military coalition against Israel; the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East; the collapse of Israeli defense systems due to a massive, combined precision-missile attack led by Iran and its proxies; international isolation and boycott of Israel; and the disintegration of Israeli society and the loss of its internal cohesion and foundations of its Jewish and democratic identity. Each scenario was examined through the parameters of severity and probability given the existing situation and possible future scenarios. The research team pointed out threat catalysts and positive trends that should be maintained and encouraged for each scenario. The team formulated recommendations regarding preventive steps and measures for developing future capabilities to cope with the threat scenarios presented here. Models built for the study helped the teams analyzeIsrael’s security pillars and examine their importance and functioning visà-vis the scenarios.

In the following, we discuss the theoretical definitions of the concept existential threat, survey the existing research discourse on the issue in the Israeli context, and present the research methodology.