Operation Guardian of the Walls

Overall, Israel is a strong regional power that enjoys clear operational superiority over its enemies due to its strength in intelligence, airpower, and active defense. This was manifested clearly in 2021 in Operation Guardian of the Walls (attacks on Hamas's underground and active defense), in the campaign between the wars (reducing the Iranian entrenchment in Syria), and in routine security measures in the West Bank. The Tnufa multi-year plan is also meant to improve the IDF's operational capabilities for war scenarios, along with neutralization of the threat of attack tunnels, identification of more potential targets, and intelligence and firepower adapted to the information and artificial intelligence era. However, force buildup among Israel's enemies reflects a clear learning curve, which in turn offsets Israel's strength based on their improved defensive capabilities – advanced anti-aircraft systems, disruptors, underground spaces, and integration into the urban environment. Even more so are the enemies’ improved offensive capabilities – more operational dimensions and arenas, and better firepower: in quantity, quality, lethality, and especially precision. With the potential for a turning point  in the nature of the confrontation, there is a need for a mental leap (from knowledge to awareness) regarding the intensity of the threat, to the point of examining the possibility of future preemptive action. Consequently, it is essential to continue to invest in upgrading the capabilities of the IDF and the other security forces through a systemic perspective that is customized to changes in the strategic and operational environment. The immediate focus should be on creating a credible military threat vis-à-vis Iran, not only as to the nuclear program but also regarding a large-scale war in the north. In tandem, the campaign between wars should be continued, expanded, and adapted to the entirety of the Iranian threat, while deepening defensive and offensive cooperation with other actors in the region. In addition, Israel should launch a campaign between wars vis-à-vis the military buildup in the Gaza Strip; prepare for scenarios of deterioration or collapse of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank particularly once Abu Mazen departs the stage; strengthen the 360 defense of the home front, in light of the potential of a "counter campaign between wars" and a prolonged multi-arena war; engage in political-military discussion to plan maximization and priorities in the case of battle days in the north; formulate an up-to-date strategic objective for the scenario of a war in the north; create mechanisms for controlling the Gaza Strip in a scenario where Hamas is topped, the organization collapses, or there is a severe humanitarian crisis; and consider how to gain legitimacy and maximize achievements given an accelerated international stopwatch in the case of massive IDF strikes in the urban environment.

Three seminal developments shaped the domestic arena in Israel over the past year. The first was the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, marked by changing intensities and Israel's successful vaccination campaign. The second was Operation Guardian of the Walls in May 2021, which posed difficult challenges to Israel both militarily vis-à-vis Hamas in Gaza and domestically, with violent clashes between Arabs and Jews in Israel. The third was the formation of the new Israeli government.

Do Israelis believe that Israel was victorious in Operation Guardian of the Walls? How do Israelis define victory, and to what extent are they influenced by fake news? The INSS public opinion survey looked at the public’s thoughts regarding the most recent military campaign in Gaza, and presents several insights relating to the cognitive battle that occurs in tandem with the military operation on the ground.

Fake images that go viral, fake WhatsApp messages that reach many people, and international public figures that in one instant ruin all Israeli public diplomacy efforts – in the course of the May 2021 campaign in Gaza, Israel confronted a significant challenge in the digital arena. What does Operation Guardian of the Walls look like to the average internet user, and how can Israel prepare for the digital battle in the next campaign?