Coronavirus

Read the INSS Strategic Analysis for 2023

The international system is struggling with many crises and challenges, led by the continued efforts at economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis while coping with the pandemic itself; the intensifying competition between the United States and China, which heightens the divisiveness in the international dynamic; and the climate crisis, which tests the ability to cooperate despite disagreements. The US administration has less attention for the Middle East, and is restoring human rights considerations to a central place in its policy, against the backdrop of the mid-term elections and deep political polarization in the United States. All these issues underline the need to update Israel's policy regarding the international arena, especially: deepening the coordination with the US administration and key actors in the international community, and enlisting their support for advancing Israel's objectives. Chief among them are preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and maximizing Israel's comparative advantages, particularly in the fields of science and technology, to advance initiatives to help stabilize the Middle East and cope with the global climate crisis.

The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract from the urgency of security threats, which remain significant. In the face of this uncertainty, Israel will need to prioritize attention to the internal crisis; adjust itself to the competition between the great powers, which is affected by the pandemic; adapt to the Biden administration and coordinate with it on Iran and other issues; expand alliances and normalization agreements with additional countries in the region; and be ready for military escalation in the north and in the Gaza Strip arena, which could occur even though all of the actors involved prefer to avoid it.

The COVID-19 pandemic is the most recent example of a natural threat, a category that includes earthquakes, tsunamis, fires, and floods. States must regularly grapple with natural threats, along with man-made threats such as terrorism and wars. Such threats challenge the traditional definition of the concept of national security, especially in terms of how to properly address them, but they have not yet earned their rightful central place in national security doctrines. Disasters on a similar or even larger scale than those already witnessed are expected to take place in the future as a product of the current era, an "age of disruptions." New Zealand’s management of the COVID-19 challenge is considered a global success story. As a case study, it highlights five central principles that together enable a model for emergency and crisis management: a shared objective; professional support; connecting communication; a comprehensive plan; and flexibility. These management principles emphasize the societal element as a central component in the struggle against an unfamiliar threat, particularly in a "reality of disruptions" that is marked by extreme uncertainty.