Strategic Assessment

The Ukrainian crisis has become a critical event in the global competition among the major powers, threatening international stability and figuring as one of the most important issues affecting the Middle East. Russia, threatened by developments in Ukraine, has responded aggressively, though with controlled use of force. Its goal has been to restore the status quo ante, i.e., reintegrate Ukraine in the circle of Russian influence and prevent it from joining Western organizations. It seems that as a temporary solution, Russia will try to arrive at international understandings regarding Ukraine, even at the expense of some of its influence. To ease the pressure currently exerted on it, Russia has launched some initiatives in which the Middle East plays a key role, and has increased its activity in the region in order to shift international attention away from Eastern Europe to the Middle East. This has implications for the region’s future and Israel’s interests. For its part, Israel has thus far chosen to remain neutral, while monitoring and assessing the course of events.