Strategic Assessment

Despite various constraints, Iran apparently intends to leave military forces in Syria indefinitely. Most of these forces will likely come from Hezbollah and the Iraqi Shiite militias and, to a lesser degree, from the Afghan and Pakistani militias, and will be led by members of the Revolutionary Guards and the Quds Force. In such a scenario, they will tighten Iran’s grip on Syria, enhance Iran’s regional influence, and generate new threats against Israel. However, this military involvement also incurs weaknesses for Iran, including improved Israeli ability to attack it. Accordingly, Iran will not, in all likelihood, hurry to provoke Israel, and instead will focus on enhancing its deterrence. In any case, Israel will have to improve its deterrence against Iran; this might involve cooperation with the American administration.