Strategic Assessment

This article examines relations between Russia and Turkey, focusing on three principal areas of potential conflict between them: the Middle East, Central Asia and the Caucasus, and the Mediterranean Sea. In the Middle East theater, Russia fears that the upheaval in the Arab world, especially in Syria, will reduce its influence. In the Caucasus, Russia is anxious about rising Western influence, including from Turkey. Given the developments in Syria and the discoveries of natural gas, Russia is reinforcing its naval presence in the Mediterranean Sea, which also creates potential for conflict. However, the extensive economic relations between Russia and Turkey constitute an important mitigating element. The article also considers how Russian-Turkish relations impact on the countries’ respective policies toward Israel.