Strategic Assessment

Salam Fayyad and Abu Mazen are pursuing a two-pronged policy. The first course is an attempt to resume direct negotiations with Israel over a permanent settlement and the creation of an independent state within the 1967 borders, or alternatively, asking the UN to recognize the 1967 lines as the borders of the future Palestinian state. The second course is the actual establishment of a Palestinian state by mid-2011. Hamas, in no hurry to reach any reconciliation with Fatah, strives to rebuild its military strength and consolidate its position as an Islamic entity. This essay analyzes the divided Palestinian system, the balance of power and developing trends within its two parts, and the implications for Israel in the political-security sphere.