Strategic Assessment

Some analysts maintain that Iran's development of a nuclear bomb will not lead to a regional arms race, as Iran's three chief rivals in the region, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, lack the economic and technological capabilities and the necessary motivation to develop nuclear weapons. This conclusion, however, is based on a problematic review of the relevant states and their drive to acquire nuclear weapons once Iran has obtained them. Rather, analysis of these states' strategic logic; their ability to bear the economic burden of a military nuclear program; the technological capability required for developing nuclear weapons; and the political constraints that would influence and perhaps dissuade them from acquiring nuclear weapons suggests that the possibility of a regional arms race is not at all low.