On November 10–11, trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States will resume in Abu Dhabi, following the meeting that took place in Geneva on February 17–18. Since then, Ukraine has regained control of territory in the Lyman area, and Russia has intensified its strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. After four years and eight months of full-scale war, the Kremlin still hopes that continued fighting will yield concessions it has yet to secure at the negotiating table.
On the front, Moscow is struggling to achieve its objectives. Putin frames the conquest of the Donbas as inevitable, but the Russian military has yet to encircle the main cities in Donetsk Oblast that remain under Ukrainian control. Disrupting Russian supply lines with drones has helped Ukrainian forces launch counterattacks and seize the initiative in several sectors. In September and October, Russia lost more territory than it captured, although its forces continue to advance in some areas. Moscow continues to demand that Kyiv cede territories that the Russian army has failed to capture, and the likelihood that Kyiv will agree is low.
As the Russian military struggles to reach a decisive outcome on the front, the Kremlin is intensifying its attacks on the Ukrainian home front. Strikes on power grids, industrial plants, and ports are intended to weaken the economy and wear down the public's resilience. Disruptions to heating and water supplies in Kyiv ahead of winter illustrate the toll on civilians. Ukraine’s central bank forecasts a 0.4 percent contraction in 2026, compared with its previous forecast of 1.8 percent growth. Against this backdrop, Kyiv met with its partners in Brussels on November 4–5 to discuss postwar reconstruction and funding for defense needs in 2027 if the fighting continues. Budgetary pressure is also mounting in Russia: the projected federal deficit is nearly double the original target, while oil and gas revenues dropped by approximately 14 percent in January–October compared with the same period last year.
The talks, mediated by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, may clarify where agreements could be reached even before a comprehensive ceasefire. Kyiv wants to discuss prisoner exchanges, the return of Ukrainian children transferred to Russia, and commercial maritime safety in the Black Sea. Regarding security guarantees, Kyiv wants to know which of its allies will respond if Russia attacks again, by what means, and how quickly. Britain and France are preparing to conduct drills in Poland to rehearse a potential force deployment after the fighting ends, while Moscow opposes the stationing of foreign troops in Ukraine.
The Kremlin's willingness to compromise also depends on decisions made in Washington. The Trump administration reached an agreement with Moscow on the supply of Russian diesel fuel and suspended some sanctions under the Graham Act. At the same time, about $2 billion in allied funding is still missing for already approved purchases of U.S. weapons for Ukraine. Further concessions granted to Russia before it fulfills its commitments, coupled with potential delays in weapons deliveries to Kyiv, could encourage the Kremlin to stall. The Democratic victory in both houses of Congress has raised hopes in Kyiv for expanded aid, but the new Congress will only convene in January, while the Trump administration is conducting the Abu Dhabi talks.
Meanwhile, Beijing has confirmed that discussions are underway regarding a potential trilateral meeting between Xi Jinping, Trump, and Putin on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen. The meeting has not yet been officially confirmed. If the war is discussed, Moscow will be able to advance its position in Kyiv’s absence.
In Abu Dhabi, the immediate test ahead of winter will be the feasibility of a mutual pause in strikes. According to an outline raised in pre-meeting preparations, Russia would suspend its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, while Ukraine would suspend its attacks on Russia’s oil industry facilities, including refineries. Such an arrangement would require agreement on which facilities it covers and on a mechanism for documenting violations. The question is whether halting strikes on refineries will justify, in the Kremlin's eyes, temporarily relinquishing a leverage point that has taken on greater importance as the Russian army's advance on the frontline has slowed.
On November 10–11, trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States will resume in Abu Dhabi, following the meeting that took place in Geneva on February 17–18. Since then, Ukraine has regained control of territory in the Lyman area, and Russia has intensified its strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. After four years and eight months of full-scale war, the Kremlin still hopes that continued fighting will yield concessions it has yet to secure at the negotiating table.
On the front, Moscow is struggling to achieve its objectives. Putin frames the conquest of the Donbas as inevitable, but the Russian military has yet to encircle the main cities in Donetsk Oblast that remain under Ukrainian control. Disrupting Russian supply lines with drones has helped Ukrainian forces launch counterattacks and seize the initiative in several sectors. In September and October, Russia lost more territory than it captured, although its forces continue to advance in some areas. Moscow continues to demand that Kyiv cede territories that the Russian army has failed to capture, and the likelihood that Kyiv will agree is low.
As the Russian military struggles to reach a decisive outcome on the front, the Kremlin is intensifying its attacks on the Ukrainian home front. Strikes on power grids, industrial plants, and ports are intended to weaken the economy and wear down the public's resilience. Disruptions to heating and water supplies in Kyiv ahead of winter illustrate the toll on civilians. Ukraine’s central bank forecasts a 0.4 percent contraction in 2026, compared with its previous forecast of 1.8 percent growth. Against this backdrop, Kyiv met with its partners in Brussels on November 4–5 to discuss postwar reconstruction and funding for defense needs in 2027 if the fighting continues. Budgetary pressure is also mounting in Russia: the projected federal deficit is nearly double the original target, while oil and gas revenues dropped by approximately 14 percent in January–October compared with the same period last year.
The talks, mediated by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, may clarify where agreements could be reached even before a comprehensive ceasefire. Kyiv wants to discuss prisoner exchanges, the return of Ukrainian children transferred to Russia, and commercial maritime safety in the Black Sea. Regarding security guarantees, Kyiv wants to know which of its allies will respond if Russia attacks again, by what means, and how quickly. Britain and France are preparing to conduct drills in Poland to rehearse a potential force deployment after the fighting ends, while Moscow opposes the stationing of foreign troops in Ukraine.
The Kremlin's willingness to compromise also depends on decisions made in Washington. The Trump administration reached an agreement with Moscow on the supply of Russian diesel fuel and suspended some sanctions under the Graham Act. At the same time, about $2 billion in allied funding is still missing for already approved purchases of U.S. weapons for Ukraine. Further concessions granted to Russia before it fulfills its commitments, coupled with potential delays in weapons deliveries to Kyiv, could encourage the Kremlin to stall. The Democratic victory in both houses of Congress has raised hopes in Kyiv for expanded aid, but the new Congress will only convene in January, while the Trump administration is conducting the Abu Dhabi talks.
Meanwhile, Beijing has confirmed that discussions are underway regarding a potential trilateral meeting between Xi Jinping, Trump, and Putin on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen. The meeting has not yet been officially confirmed. If the war is discussed, Moscow will be able to advance its position in Kyiv’s absence.
In Abu Dhabi, the immediate test ahead of winter will be the feasibility of a mutual pause in strikes. According to an outline raised in pre-meeting preparations, Russia would suspend its attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, while Ukraine would suspend its attacks on Russia’s oil industry facilities, including refineries. Such an arrangement would require agreement on which facilities it covers and on a mechanism for documenting violations. The question is whether halting strikes on refineries will justify, in the Kremlin's eyes, temporarily relinquishing a leverage point that has taken on greater importance as the Russian army's advance on the frontline has slowed.