The ongoing fighting between Israel and Hezbollah at the conclusion of the fourth round of direct talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington (June 3) raises doubts regarding the feasibility of continuing these talks, mainly due to the Lebanese leadership's lack of capability—or rather, weak ability—to influence Hezbollah. In the joint statement at the conclusion of this meeting, it was reported that the sides agreed on a conditional ceasefire, which means an absolute cessation of fire by Hezbollah and the evacuation of all the organization's operatives from the area south of the Litani River. However, the Hezbollah Secretary-General rushed to issue a response rejecting on the spot results that "threaten the organization", defining them as humiliating, embarrassing, and under the guise of surrender and defeat of the Lebanese government. In practice, the organization continues to fight IDF forces in Lebanese and Syrian territory—even if at a lower volume for now—and against northern communities.
Despite this, one should not underestimate the importance of continuing these talks, which promote the interests of both sides and may pave the way to ending the fighting down the line:
• The talks intensify the difficulties with which Hezbollah is dealing. Their existence challenges the narrative that Hezbollah planted in Lebanon, according to which there are no relations with Israel, and intensifies the criticism against it by most of the Lebanese population for initiating the war in the service of Iran and continuing it despite the limited achievements. The organization continues to pay a heavy price as a result of the ongoing fighting, which erodes its capabilities and erodes the support it receives, especially from its Shiite supporters who have been severely harmed by it.
• Holding the talks creates a new atmosphere of trust and hope for a change in reality between Israel and Lebanon, and exposes the common interest of both sides against Hezbollah and Iran. When the Lebanese leadership proves its determination to take courageous steps, despite the threats from Hezbollah, it will act to overthrow it, and persevere in the effort to reach a diplomatic solution to end the war, as the Lebanese president emphasized in his interview with CNN (on June 5). In practice, there are notable sparks of cooperation on the ground following the decision on a pilot advancement for Lebanese Army forces to enter areas vacated by the IDF (starting in the village of Dbayeh and the Marjayoun region).
• Vis-à-vis Iran, the very existence of the talks takes away the card with which it is trying to maintain its current control over the developments of the fighting in Lebanon. The more these talks progress, the more it will be possible to sever the connection between Iran's war and its proxies and the Americans to ending the war in the north.
In light of this, despite the feeling of frustration that the talks in Washington have limited influence on the reality on the ground, it is highly important for Israel and Lebanon to continue direct negotiation, while utilizing the opportunities that the US is working hard to advance. From Israel's perspective, although for now the talks do not lead to an absolute ceasefire, they do possess inherent advantages, and it must persevere in them alongside the continuation of the fighting against Hezbollah due to the clear inability to achieve its goals through fighting alone. Israel must come to terms with the fact that this is a long process that requires time and investment of resources, including willingness for concessions, in order to create a significant change in the military and political reality vis-à-vis Lebanon.
The ongoing fighting between Israel and Hezbollah at the conclusion of the fourth round of direct talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington (June 3) raises doubts regarding the feasibility of continuing these talks, mainly due to the Lebanese leadership's lack of capability—or rather, weak ability—to influence Hezbollah. In the joint statement at the conclusion of this meeting, it was reported that the sides agreed on a conditional ceasefire, which means an absolute cessation of fire by Hezbollah and the evacuation of all the organization's operatives from the area south of the Litani River. However, the Hezbollah Secretary-General rushed to issue a response rejecting on the spot results that "threaten the organization", defining them as humiliating, embarrassing, and under the guise of surrender and defeat of the Lebanese government. In practice, the organization continues to fight IDF forces in Lebanese and Syrian territory—even if at a lower volume for now—and against northern communities.
Despite this, one should not underestimate the importance of continuing these talks, which promote the interests of both sides and may pave the way to ending the fighting down the line:
• The talks intensify the difficulties with which Hezbollah is dealing. Their existence challenges the narrative that Hezbollah planted in Lebanon, according to which there are no relations with Israel, and intensifies the criticism against it by most of the Lebanese population for initiating the war in the service of Iran and continuing it despite the limited achievements. The organization continues to pay a heavy price as a result of the ongoing fighting, which erodes its capabilities and erodes the support it receives, especially from its Shiite supporters who have been severely harmed by it.
• Holding the talks creates a new atmosphere of trust and hope for a change in reality between Israel and Lebanon, and exposes the common interest of both sides against Hezbollah and Iran. When the Lebanese leadership proves its determination to take courageous steps, despite the threats from Hezbollah, it will act to overthrow it, and persevere in the effort to reach a diplomatic solution to end the war, as the Lebanese president emphasized in his interview with CNN (on June 5). In practice, there are notable sparks of cooperation on the ground following the decision on a pilot advancement for Lebanese Army forces to enter areas vacated by the IDF (starting in the village of Dbayeh and the Marjayoun region).
• Vis-à-vis Iran, the very existence of the talks takes away the card with which it is trying to maintain its current control over the developments of the fighting in Lebanon. The more these talks progress, the more it will be possible to sever the connection between Iran's war and its proxies and the Americans to ending the war in the north.
In light of this, despite the feeling of frustration that the talks in Washington have limited influence on the reality on the ground, it is highly important for Israel and Lebanon to continue direct negotiation, while utilizing the opportunities that the US is working hard to advance. From Israel's perspective, although for now the talks do not lead to an absolute ceasefire, they do possess inherent advantages, and it must persevere in them alongside the continuation of the fighting against Hezbollah due to the clear inability to achieve its goals through fighting alone. Israel must come to terms with the fact that this is a long process that requires time and investment of resources, including willingness for concessions, in order to create a significant change in the military and political reality vis-à-vis Lebanon.