Nasrallah’s Hive Is Shrinking—But Does This Lead to Victory? | INSS
go to header go to content go to footer go to search
INSS logo The Institute for National Security Studies, Strategic, Innovative, Policy-Oriented Research, go to the home page
INSS
Tel Aviv University logo - beyond an external website, opens on a new page
  • Campus
  • Contact
  • עברית
  • Support Us
  • Research
    • Topics
      • Israel and the Global Powers
        • Israel-United States Relations
        • Glazer Israel-China Policy Center
        • Russia
        • Europe
      • Iran and the Shi'ite Axis
        • Iran
        • The Israel–Iran War
        • Lebanon and Hezbollah
        • Syria
        • Yemen and the Houthi Movement
        • Iraq and the Iraqi Shiite Militias
      • Conflict to Agreements
        • Israeli-Palestinian Relations
        • Hamas and the Gaza Strip
        • Peace Agreements and Normalization in the Middle East
        • Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States
        • Turkey
        • Egypt
        • Jordan
      • Israel’s National Security Policy
        • Military and Strategic Affairs
        • Societal Resilience and the Israeli Society
        • Jewish-Arab Relations in Israel
        • Climate, Infrastructure and Energy
        • Terrorism and Low Intensity Conflict
      • Cross-Arena Research
        • Data Analytics Center
        • Law and National Security
        • Advanced Technologies and National Security
        • Cognitive Warfare
        • Economics and National Security
    • Projects
      • Preventing the Slide into a One-State Reality
      • Contemporary Antisemitism in the United States
      • Perceptions about Jews and Israel in the Arab-Muslim World and Their Impact on the West
  • Publications
    • -
      • All Publications
      • INSS Insight
      • Policy Papers
      • Special Publication
      • Strategic Assessment
      • Technology Platform
      • Memoranda
      • Posts
      • Books
      • Archive
  • Database
    • Surveys
    • Spotlight
    • Maps
    • Dashboards
  • Events
  • Team
  • About
    • Vision and Mission
    • History
    • Research Disciplines
    • Board of Directors
    • Fellowship and Prizes
    • Internships
    • Newsletter
  • Media
    • Communications
    • Video gallery
    • Press Releases
  • Podcast
  • Newsletter
  • Campus
Search in site
  • Research
    • Topics
    • Israel and the Global Powers
    • Israel-United States Relations
    • Glazer Israel-China Policy Center
    • Russia
    • Europe
    • Iran and the Shi'ite Axis
    • Iran
    • The Israel–Iran War
    • Lebanon and Hezbollah
    • Syria
    • Yemen and the Houthi Movement
    • Iraq and the Iraqi Shiite Militias
    • Conflict to Agreements
    • Israeli-Palestinian Relations
    • Hamas and the Gaza Strip
    • Peace Agreements and Normalization in the Middle East
    • Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States
    • Turkey
    • Egypt
    • Jordan
    • Israel’s National Security Policy
    • Military and Strategic Affairs
    • Societal Resilience and the Israeli Society
    • Jewish-Arab Relations in Israel
    • Climate, Infrastructure and Energy
    • Terrorism and Low Intensity Conflict
    • Cross-Arena Research
    • Data Analytics Center
    • Law and National Security
    • Advanced Technologies and National Security
    • Cognitive Warfare
    • Economics and National Security
    • Projects
    • Preventing the Slide into a One-State Reality
    • Contemporary Antisemitism in the United States
    • Perceptions about Jews and Israel in the Arab-Muslim World and Their Impact on the West
  • Publications
    • All Publications
    • INSS Insight
    • Policy Papers
    • Special Publication
    • Strategic Assessment
    • Technology Platform
    • Memoranda
    • Posts
    • Books
    • Archive
  • Database
    • Surveys
    • Spotlight
    • Maps
    • Dashboards
  • Events
  • Team
  • About
    • Vision and Mission
    • History
    • Research Disciplines
    • Board of Directors
    • Fellowship and Prizes
    • Internships
    • Privacy Policy and Terms of Use
  • Media
    • Communications
    • Video gallery
    • Press Releases
  • Podcast
  • Newsletter
  • Campus
  • Contact
  • עברית
  • Support Us
bool(false)

Posts

Home Posts Nasrallah’s Hive Is Shrinking—But Does This Lead to Victory?

Nasrallah’s Hive Is Shrinking—But Does This Lead to Victory?
Tamir Hayman
22 September, 2024

The attack that took place on Friday in Beirut, which killed senior members of Hezbollah’s Radwan Force, along with Ibrahim Aqil, head of Hezbollah’s operations section, is part of a new wave of attacks in Lebanon. Each strike employed specialized intelligence and revealed previously unknown operational capabilities. This isn’t just operational excellence—it marks the beginning of a completely new campaign.

The bottom line is that we’re now in a new phase. The increasing frequency of blows that Israel delivers to Hezbollah aims to achieve the objectives of war without triggering an all-out regional conflict. It’s crucial to act decisively before such a war escalates. However, these strikes may further escalate the campaign against Hezbollah, increasing the risk of full-scale war before Hezbollah agrees to our ceasefire terms.

After the assassination of Fuad Shukr, two senior commanders remained at the top of Hezbollah: Ali Karaki, the commander of the Southern Command, who is now leading the military campaign against Israel following Shukr’s death, and Ibrahim Aqil, who was responsible for operations and the architect of the idea of an extensive raid into Israeli territory. Aqil undoubtedly one of Hezbollah’s most senior commanders, leaves Nasrallah’s operational hive nearly empty. While Hezbollah can replace personnel, in the short term, its fighting capabilities are significantly undermined.

The death of Ibrahim Aqil, reportedly killed along with his assistants, disrupts Hezbollah’s combat capability, although it’s not decisive. It’s a severe blow, but Hezbollah will likely retaliate, bringing us closer than ever to an all-out war. Tactical successes do not guarantee overall victory. To secure that, the campaign must be part of a broader strategic plan. Much remains unknown, and it’s hoped that our leaders will conduct the campaign responsibly, avoiding conflicts that spiral out of control, as such escalation could negate the advantage of the initial surprise strikes.

>> This article was first published last Friday on the N12 website.

Topics: Lebanon and Hezbollah, Swords of Iron War
Recent Posts
All Posts
Trump’s Architecture, Israel’s Risks
3 December, 2025
One Year Since the Outbreak of the Offensive That Toppled the Assad Regime: Five Insights
27 November, 2025
The Elimination of Tabatabai—A Turning Point in the Israel–Hezbollah Confrontation?
24 November, 2025

Stay up to date

Registration was successful! Thanks.
  • Research

    • Topics
      • Israel and the Global Powers
      • Israel-United States Relations
      • Glazer Israel-China Policy Center
      • Russia
      • Europe
      • Iran and the Shi'ite Axis
      • Iran
      • The Israel–Iran War
      • Lebanon and Hezbollah
      • Syria
      • Yemen and the Houthi Movement
      • Iraq and the Iraqi Shiite Militias
      • Conflict to Agreements
      • Israeli-Palestinian Relations
      • Hamas and the Gaza Strip
      • Peace Agreements and Normalization in the Middle East
      • Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States
      • Turkey
      • Egypt
      • Jordan
      • Israel’s National Security Policy
      • Military and Strategic Affairs
      • Societal Resilience and the Israeli Society
      • Jewish-Arab Relations in Israel
      • Climate, Infrastructure and Energy
      • Terrorism and Low Intensity Conflict
      • Cross-Arena Research
      • Data Analytics Center
      • Law and National Security
      • Advanced Technologies and National Security
      • Cognitive Warfare
      • Economics and National Security
    • Projects
      • Preventing the Slide into a One-State Reality
      • Contemporary Antisemitism in the United States
      • Perceptions about Jews and Israel in the Arab-Muslim World and Their Impact on the West
  • Publications

    • All Publications
    • INSS Insight
    • Policy Papers
    • Special Publication
    • Strategic Assessment
    • Technology Platform
    • Memoranda
    • Database
    • Posts
    • Books
    • Archive
  • About

    • Vision and Mission
    • History
    • Research Disciplines
    • Board of Directors
    • Fellowship and Prizes
    • Internships
    • Support
    • Privacy Policy and Terms of Use
  • Media

    • Communications
    • Video Gallery
    • Press Release
    • Podcast
  • Home

  • Events

  • Database

  • Team

  • Contact

  • Newsletter

  • עברית

INSS logo The Institute for National Security Studies, Strategic, Innovative, Policy-Oriented Research, go to the home page
40 Haim Levanon St. Tel Aviv, 6997556 Israel | Tel: 03-640-0400 | Fax: 03-744-7590 | Email: info@inss.org.il
Developed by Daat A Realcommerce company.
Accessibility Statement
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.