The Attempt to Down an Airplane: An Opportunity to Strengthen Normalization | INSS
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Home Posts The Attempt to Down an Airplane: An Opportunity to Strengthen Normalization

The Attempt to Down an Airplane: An Opportunity to Strengthen Normalization
Yoel Guzansky
1 October, 2026

The attempt to bring down the Emirati airplane en route to Israel was intended to harm not only the passengers, but also one of the most tangible expressions of normalization between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. Precisely for this reason, the response to the event should be to strengthen the relationship, rather than scale it back.

Flights between Israel and the UAE are the most prominent everyday expression of the Abraham Accords: hundreds of thousands of Israelis traveling between the two countries, tourism, business, and economic ties that have become routine in just a few years. Therefore, an attack on such a flight is also an attempt to damage the human and practical infrastructure upon which the normalization rests.

This creates an opportunity. Israel and the United Arab Emirates should leverage the incident to deepen their cooperation, not only in aviation security and intelligence sharing, but also by demonstrating their commitment to the relationship itself. To the extent that the goal was to deter Israelis from flying to Dubai, to harm an Emirati airline operating a direct route to Israel, or to demonstrate the price Abu Dhabi pays for its ties with Israel, it is vital that the outcome be the exact opposite.

The incident is a test for the United Arab Emirates. Since October 7th, Abu Dhabi has been careful to maintain its relations with Israel while significantly lowering their public profile due to sensitivities in Arab public opinion. The current incident gives both countries an opportunity to strengthen the practical, less conspicuous aspects of their relationship: security, intelligence, and aviation cooperation; protecting citizens; and the continuity of their ties.

However, the event also exposed the Saudi paradox. A plane carrying Israelis was forced to seek refuge in Saudi Arabia, where public normalization remains a highly sensitive issue. Riyadh responded pragmatically when the need arose. This is precisely where Israel needs to exercise caution. There is no need to present the landing in Tabuk as "proof" that Saudi normalization is just around the corner. Doing so risks embarrassing Riyadh and producing the opposite effect. It would be better to express gratitude for the Saudi handling of the situation, allow Riyadh to keep a low profile, and recognize that an accumulation of such practical incidents can build trust over time.

The broader significance is that normalization in the Middle East is tested not only through ceremonies, declarations, and the opening of embassies, but also in moments of crisis. This incident should therefore be seen as both a threat and an opportunity: to deepen ties and cooperation with the UAE. The perpetrator sought to prove that relations with Israel are a burden and a risk. The most effective response is to prove the opposite: to turn the attempted terror attack into leverage to strengthen ties with the Emirates, and into another small step toward building trust with Saudi Arabia.

Topics: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, Peace Agreements and Normalization in the Middle East
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      • Iran and the Shi'ite Axis
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