Publications

Israel did not intend to start a war in the Lebanese theater, nor did Hezbollah plan one. Essentially, the Second Lebanon War was a result of the ongoing erosion in Israel’s deterrence, which motivated Hezbollah to carry out a provocative kidnapping operation, under the erroneous assumption that it would not necessarily lead to escalation. The Second Lebanon War lasted 34 days, and its results were far reaching. Even though the way it was conducted drew strong criticism from the Israeli public and the Winograd Commission Report, it brought about a prolonged and unprecedented lull on the Israeli-Lebanese border, a lull that still continues one decade later. From a historical perspective, it can be seen that the Second Lebanon War was a kind of supplementary action to the IDF withdrawal from Lebanon in May 2000. This supplementary measure, however, had weak points, which may also contain the seeds of the next conflict.