How Iran Can Attain its Nuclear Capability – and Then Use It

Iran has been proceeding steadily on its quest for a nuclear weapons capability, and as little seems to motivate it towards abandoning its ambitions, it will likely get there, possibly at the turn of the present decade. Although the international community has been taking coercive action, mainly by economic – fiscal, monetary, and trade – sanctions, it has not been successful in persuading Iran to abandon its program or at least suspend it. True, there have been reports that the sanctions have a perceptible effect on the Iranian population, but as yet these have not translated into government action or, as some hope, a change in government. Tehran has been aided, albeit inadvertently, by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which has avoided serious condemnation of Iran, and by Russia and China, which were reluctant first to impose sanctions and thereafter to strengthen them. The realistic if pessimistic view must be, then, that Iran will probably succeed in its quest for nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future. Thus, the time is right to take another look at Iran’s nuclear program and to assess the possible trend of future developments.