Publications

As of late 2012, only four Arab governments had actually been overthrown, and the impact of those changes on regional balances remained fairly modest. However, because of the apparent vulnerability of regimes in many other parts of the region, and particularly because of the explosion of “identity politics” in recent years, the potential for far more dramatic change, though not yet realized, remains in place. Depending on the outcomes of ongoing and future challenges to regimes in other Arab states, especially Syria, and even to the integrity of some of those states, the Middle East state system might yet undergo a truly profound transformation.