Turkey’s need to renew its fleet of fighter jets is not new, but it has become more pressing due to acquisitions by other regional states and the outcomes of Israel’s war with Iran. Although Ankara is still dealing with the repercussions of its removal from the F-35 program in 2019, it now has more options than in the past, thanks to its improved political situation as a result of the war in Ukraine, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, and Trump’s return to the White House. Currently, Ankara is considering three main options for...
At the NATO summit held in The Hague on June 24–25, European countries received a renewed American commitment to the collective security guarantee within the alliance. In return, they agreed to increase their defense budgets as demanded by President Trump. Nevertheless, obstacles remain in Europe’s path to security independence, and there is no certainty that the parties will fulfill their commitments. The shifts in power dynamics within NATO and the implications of Trump’s approach to relations between the United States and its...
Despite more than twenty years of promoting Islam under Erdoğan in Turkey and over four and a half decades of Islamic rule in Iran, secularization processes are observable in both countries, especially among the younger generation. In Turkey, despite efforts by the government to promote religion through the education system, public space, and legislation, many young people identify as secular, and there is a clear decline in religious practices such as fasting during Ramadan or praying in mosques. Similarly, in Iran, there is an...
France is in the midst of a deep political crisis, exacerbated by President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly. Without a clear parliamentary majority, the French political system is now mired in unprecedented instability, with no resolution in sight. This crisis comes at a time when the French economy is showing signs of weakness and social polarization is worsening, strengthening movements at both ends of the political spectrum. Facing domestic challenges, Macron has intensified his international...
Between June 6 and June 9, elections were held across Europe to determine who would be the 720 members of the European Parliament for the next five years and the balance of political power on the continent. The discourse throughout the election campaign, in which the influence of the October 7 massacre and the subsequent war in the Gaza Strip was evident, focused primarily on political issues (security, immigration, and identity) and on economic issues—at the expense of the climate crisis. While the right increased its strength, the...
Following the local elections in Turkey at the end of March, which saw President Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party defeated in major cities, Turkey has implemented a series of harsh measures against Israel in response to the war in the Gaza Strip. Some of these measures deviate from Ankara’s previous policies, which had also led to a deterioration in relations between the countries during previous Israeli operations in Gaza. This deviation from past policies necessitates reexamining the bilateral ties and for Israel to...
The results of the municipal elections that were held across Turkey on March 31 surprised many Turkish commentators because of the magnitude of the blow that voters delivered to the government. For the first time since it came to power, the party of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan did not finish in first place. In contrast, the opposition recorded a historic achievement. Not only did the opposition prevent Erdoğan-backed candidates from retaking control of Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, but it also recorded victories in many other...
The Treaty of Sèvres, signed in 1920 between the Ottoman Empire and the triumphant allies of WWI, is perceived in the Turkish public consciousness as a deep humiliation, and has had a lasting impact on Turkey’s foreign policy. Although the “Sèvres disgrace” was eliminated following the Lausanne Treaty in 1923, which amended and replaced the Treaty of Sèvres, Turkey still suffers from what is known by researchers as the “Sèvres syndrome” which pertains to the Turkish fear of foreign forces’ intention to harm...
The results of Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14, 2023, were a major success for the incumbent, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and a bitter disappointment for the opposition. The fact that Erdogan led after the first round of voting, coupled with the momentum that his electoral success gave him, positions the opposition camp on an uphill battle, and increases the chances that Erdogan will triumph in the second round and earn another term of office as president. Given the probability that the election will end with...
Current Situation – States’ respective considerations on willingness to advance relations with Israel · Core components determine ability to progress | Current Israeli Strategy – Strengthen normalized relations and leverage the Abraham Accords toward additional relationships · Cultivate quiet relations with additional countries | Israel’s Strategic Gap – Conception that “what was is necessarily what will be” – positive linearity · Incomplete acknowledgment that the Palestinian issue impacts relations ·...
In Augus 2022, Türkiye and Israel decided to return high-level diplomatic representation to the respective country and normalize ties between the states. The current attempt at normalization comes at a time when Israel is developing a new set of relationships, most notably with some of the Arab Gulf states. At the same time Ankara is also emphasizing improving relations with these same actors. How do these processes relate to one another? Which aspects are contradictory and which are complementary? Can these processes be combined?...
