Publications

The coronavirus pandemic continues to cause many deaths and an enormous economic crisis, including in Muslim countries and for many Muslims who live as minorities in other countries. Predictably, the global crisis has prompted responses from religious leaders, including those who serve as Salafi-jihadist clerics. Spokesmen on behalf of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State have also related to the crisis, instructing their supporters on how to behave given the threat, and encouraging them to maintain their loyalty to the organizations and to the path that charted for followers. With the outbreak of the crisis, the organizations' spokesmen focused mainly on the obligation by believers to protect their lives and health. Their recommendations were based on the Hadith that include statements by the Prophet instructing Muslims to safeguard their lives and flee the plague of "leper as you flee from the lion." The believers were instructed to adhere uncompromisingly to Muslim law; the pandemic was interpreted as a sign sent by God to his followers; Muslims were called on to return to Islam and strictly maintain the religious commandments; and Muslims were promised that everyone who is a victim of the pandemic is a “shahid” (martyr). Thus, the spokesmen sought to exploit the crisis to increase adherence to the commandment of daw’a, that is, to save the stray souls who have not maintained a Muslim way of life, and to return heretics to the proper path. In the discussion on the issue of infidels gloating over the suffering and death of many Muslims, most of the spokesmen argued that the pandemic is a fitting punishment and that Muslims must continue to fight to the end against all those who threaten and harm them.

The Salafi-jihadist stream itself has been in a serious crisis for the past year following the military defeat of the Islamic State, several years after it reached the peak of its power. Against the backdrop of the global distress of the enemies of Islam, the pandemic is seen as an opportunity to strengthen the hearts and faith of supporters of the fundamentalist organizations. According to spokesmen, the pandemic has proven that the Western countries, including the United States and European countries, are a paper tiger. Their technological and economic might collapsed all at once in the face of the pandemic, which is seen as an expression of God's supreme might. Thus in an official proclamation on behalf of the al-Qaeda leadership, published on March 31, spokesmen stated that the coronavirus pandemic has exposed the fragility of the world economy and the weakness of the criminal materialism of the Western world, which was a source of pride, and stated that the technological progress and globalization championed by the West have become the source of its failure. The Western world was called on to pay attention to the evidence of Allah's might that the pandemic has provided and to adopt Islam. An editorial in al-Naba, the Islamic State official newspaper, mocked United States power, which was described as a fake image and the result of psychological warfare, which caused many to believe that it has special capabilities and exceptional wisdom. It was also said that pandering to the United States and siding with it are an attempt to appease the powerful. Spokesmen explicitly declared that their purpose is to denigrate the United States and to expose those in and outside of the Muslim world who pander to it, so that they renounce their deviant path. Nor did the spokesmen spare harsh words for Iran, accusing it of exporting the virus and claiming that the pandemic that has seriously harmed it is proof that Shi'ism is not the true Islam but a fraud.

At present, a few have also called for exploiting the distraction of governmental, defense, and intelligence bodies and preparing for additional harm to the West through showcase terrorist attacks such as those carried out in Paris, London, and Brussels, without specifying where and how to act. Presumably the fact that the vast majority of residents of the West are holed up in their homes, and civil movement and economic life are shut down, makes it harder to harm them even if there were plans to do so.

This call for action against the West follows the continued activity of Islamic State forces over the past year, mainly in the Levant. Following its military defeat, the Islamic State has entered a period of reorganization and redeployment of its forces, and in the year since the loss of its last stronghold in Baghuz, the organization has continued to launch terrorist and guerrilla activities each week in the Levant, mainly in Iraq as well as in Syria and in other places around the world through its partners. The current propaganda aims to strengthen the faith of all of the organization's supporters, which weakened following the military fall and loss of control and "Islamic" governance ("Tamkeen") in extensive areas, and to recruit them for the struggle to restore Islam's glory. Various countries that took part in the activity of the coalition to defeat the Islamic State, including Australia, Spain, France, the UK, New Zealand, Portugal, the Czech Republic, and Holland, have made announcements regarding withdrawing or reducing their forces assisting Iraq in training its forces to continue the campaign against the Islamic State; this has contributed to increased confidence on the part of the organization’s forces in the Levant on their ability to recover. This sense of confidence has been strengthened by the withdrawal of American bases from Mosul, al-Qa'im, al-Qayyarah, Kirkuk, and al-Taqaddum, and the transfer of the forces to more protected rear bases, as part of a large scale process that began after the assassination of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani. Indeed, in March there was increased activity by Salafi-jihadist operatives in Iraq.

Despite the fiery propaganda of Salafi-jihadist spokesmen, and despite the continued terrorist and guerrilla activity carried out by Islamic State operatives in the Levant, it is evident that the coronavirus pandemic has affected the scope of activity of the stream around the world. Suicide attacks, which were their international "trademark," have plummeted sharply in recent months, with a few exceptions, and this has been evident since the outbreak of the pandemic in February-March. However, even though the consequences of the pandemic have presumably also been felt by the Salafi-jihadist organizations, their operatives, and their supporters, the diversion of the world's attention toward the pandemic and its complex consequences, including reduced attention towards the struggle against terrorism and thus a reduction in the pressure applied on these organizations, will be exploited by them for efforts to recover and to increase terrorist activity, which they believe is part of fulfilling God's command.