This panel brought together several policy makers and policy shapers, moderated by Maj. Gen (ret.) Amos Yadlin, head of the INSS. The panel covered the potential of war with North Korea to the role of Europe in fixing the Iranian deal to the future of the United States in Syria, and to the importance of the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Muhammad bin Salman.
Responding to the question about the potential of war with North Korea, the Hon. Michèle Flourney said that the risk of war is high, as the miscalculation is high. She noted that the nuclear arsenal of North Korea is well developed, as is the missile program. North Korea also has a rotillary that can range Seoul, a city of 25 million people. She stated that it is difficult to imagine a kinetic military strike that would not provoke a response against the South Korean population. She warned that the conflict would be more deadly and intense than any conflict of the last fifteen years. She emphasized that we must use military pressure to make diplomacy more effective and we should build our defenses through diplomacy, sanctions, and incentives to reduce the threat.
In response to the role of Europe in fixing the Iranian deal, should the United States walk away from it, Prof. François Heisbourg stated that if a simulation conducted by the INSS and the Rand Corporation on the basis of Trump’s announcement proves to be correct, around mid-May, we will see Trump tear up the agreement, and we may possibly have a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The other alternative is to have Trump take back what he said, but that then poses a credibility problem.
Prof. Heisbourg asserted that Europe cannot change the JCPOA. There is some scope on ballistic missiles, and the French have indicated that the ballistic missiles of Iran is an issue worth discussion. His advice to President Trump is that Trump can refocus his expectations and make them about ballistic missiles. He added that the Israel should not make Trump’s life difficult in congress if Trump takes this road on the JCPOA that focuses on the ballistic missiles.
When asked about the future of the 2,000 American soldiers in Syria who were sent to defeat ISIS with the Kurds and SDF, General David H. Petraeus, stated that the United States has helped to create safe zones and has enabled the Syrian Kurds to defeat ISIS as an army in most of their territory, although ISIS terrorists and insurgents remain, while the bloodshed and the flow of refugees have diminished. He expressed hope that the US military would stay to safeguard the Kurds and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as the US military may have to remain in order to ensure that the Syrian Kurd allies are not threatened by Turkey, which sees the YPG as part of the PKK, in addition to preventing ISIS from returning.
General Petraeus hoped that efforts of Iran to establish a ground line of communication from Teheran to Syria to Lebanon can be thwarted, and that efforts to “Lebanonize” Syria and Iraq by using Shiite militias will also be prevented.
He warned that if the United States disengages from the region, that it will lose its influence, and that it should remain on the ground in Syria and Iraq in order to prevent Iran from establishing its hegemony.
When asked if Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), the crown prince of Saudi Arabi is the Saudi Ataturk, or will he not make it to age 35, Thomas Friedman responded that MBS is more “McKinsey than Wahhabi,” and that he has good instincts and bad ones. According to Friedman, one problem is that MBS does not have anyone coaching him. He is responding to the new generation that is fed up with the effects of 1979 (the Iranian Revolution and the spread of Islamic extremism), such as by allowing women to drive and to attend soccer matches. While there is a lot of popular support for him, he should be seen as a modernizing autocrat. The other options for Saudi Arabia – rule by Islamists or family fiefdoms are much worse. General Petraeus added that modern and moderate Islam in Saudi Arabia is a big development and is possible. Prof. Heisbourg agreed and added that the chances for success are moderate while General Petraeus further added that even if Saudi Arabia achieves 40% of what MBS has laid out, then that should be considered a success.
When asked how what they might recommend to President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, the Hon. Michèle Flourney recommended that he listen to his advisor and not to be blind to the real threats posed by Russia to American democracy and democracies elsewhere. She also advised not walking away from the US leadership in the world, and to stop treading on national security issues. To Netanyahu, she stated that he had a chance to move the country forward toward a more sustainable peace.
Prof. Heisbourg recommended that President Trump not do what Obama did in Libya in 2011 and 2013. He encouraged him to listen to European friends. He urged Prime Minister Netanyahu to support the Special Representative for International Negotiations, Jason Greenblatt.
General Petraeus urged President Trump not to declare mission accomplished in the Middle East, and to understand that comprehensive approaches are needed to foreign policy issues. He also warned that polarization within the United States may be its greatest threat.
Mr. Friedman advised President Trump to quietly strengthen Tunisia, as a model for the entire region and to recognize the United States’ diversity. To Prime Minister Netanyahu, he recommended that he put a peace map on the table if he could not answer how Israel would remain Jewish and democratic with three million Palestinians in the West Bank.