Publications

Why did the weakened organization decide to open a front against Israel following its strike in Iran, how does this campaign differ from previous campaigns in the north, and how should Israel respond?

The Lebanese Army is the weak link on the path to realizing the vision of Lebanon’s new leadership, which seeks to repair and rehabilitate the state. A central aspect of implementing this vision is the collection of all weapons held by the militias, primarily Hezbollah, and their transfer to the Lebanese Army. This goal aligns with Israel’s interest in seeing Lebanon become a sovereign and functioning state, with a responsible central authority, whom Israel can address, that holds a monopoly on weapons through a strong army representing all elements loyal to the state. Hence, Israel and Lebanon share a common interest in strengthening the Lebanese Army so that it can implement government decisions while taking advantage of the growing weakness of both Hezbollah and Iran after the end of Operation Roaring Lion. The significant gap between the vision of Lebanon’s leadership, as reflected in its decisions against Hezbollah thus far, and its inability to realize that vision constitutes a challenge for Israel. This document presents the failures in the functioning of the Lebanese Army and concludes with recommendations for Israeli policy considering the current campaign, even though this document was written during the war and there is no certainty as to how it will end. Its importance also stems from the need to prepare for the international conference in Paris, which will focus on strengthening the Lebanese Army and whose date has been postponed until early April.  

A comprehensive analysis of public perceptions of security and trust in light of developments in the northern arena since October 7, 2023