The wave of protests sweeping Iran over the past two weeks presents the Iranian regime with its most significant challenge in recent years. The scale and severity of the protests particularly in recent days cast doubt on the regime’s ability to contain them as it has in the past. This is especially so in light of the depth of the economic crisis, the worsening hardships facing the population, the erosion of public trust in the Islamic Republic, and the explicit threat by the president of the United States to employ military force in the event of widespread and lethal violent repression of the protests.

At this stage, it is too early to assess whether the dramatic developments in Iran pose an immediate threat to the regime’s survival. Nevertheless, they may constitute a turning point in the balance of power between those seeking revolutionary change in Iran and supporters of the regime who are determined to preserve it at any cost, or at the very least to pave the way for a significant political shift in Iran one whose characteristics and implications remain difficult to assess.

This regularly updated product of the Data Analytics Center at INSS presents an overview of the current wave of protest. It is intended to provide a foundation for continued, ongoing monitoring of the unfolding events in Iran, which have the potential to affect the stability of the regime in Tehran.