Iran: The Regional Arena

Over the past five years, Iran's activity in the arena of international terrorism has significantly intensified, spreading across vast geographic regions and incorporating criminal organizations in the execution of terrorist operations. Although most Iranian terrorism attempts have been thwarted, there is no guarantee that this success will persist in the future. It is therefore necessary to examine the characteristics of Iran's use of terrorism in order to improve the chances of countering it. This memorandum examines Iran's policy regarding its use of terrorism in the international arena over the past five years, the trends that have characterized it, and its modes of operation-placing these elements within the broader historical context of Iran's employment of terrorism. An analysis of Iran's terrorism policy reveals a troubling trend, illustrating that Iran remains committed to employing international terrorism and is even amplifying its efforts in this regard, demonstrating a willingness to risk friction with numerous states in order to pursue its policy. This trend requires close attention, both in its own right and because it signals Iran's growing audacity and confidence in violating international norms and the sovereignty of states-behaviors that may also manifest in other contexts.

Following the collapse of the Assad regime, Hezbollah’s erosion, and increasing pressures on the Shiite militias, is there still a cohesive “Shiite axis” under Tehran’s strategic guidance?

An operation in Iran in response to the Houthi attacks could escalate the region into a broader conflict, and it is doubtful whether it would alter the actions of the Yemeni terror organization

With the approach of the Iranian presidential elections, there is increased discussion in Iran and in the West surrounding the possible election of a "military president," who will come from the ranks of the Revolutionary Guards and channel his military skills to the severe domestic and external challenges facing the Islamic Republic. While the standing of the Revolutionary Guards has strengthened in recent decades, and they play a prominent role in politics and the economy, any discussion of the "militarization" of the Iranian state must, inter alia, distinguish between direct intervention in politics by the Revolutionary Guards and the integration of former commanders in politics. In any case, the chances of the Revolutionary Guards taking over the Iranian political system seem slim as long as the current Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, holds the reins of power. Khamenei's death could accelerate the process of militarization of the Iranian state and perhaps even prepare the ground for an alternative model of governance, with far-reaching implications for Iran’s domestic and foreign policy.