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Three developments in the Iranian strategy:

1. A turn to the East: Iran has chosen China and Russia for strategic support. China offers economic backing, while Russia offers an operational partnership. This reduces Tehran’s motivation to return to the nuclear agreement, and reduces the effectiveness of Western economic pressure.
2. Good neighborliness: Iran is taking advantage of the US withdrawal from the Middle East to improve its relations with its neighbors and its regional position. In doing so, it reinforces the awareness of the Western withdrawal from the Middle East and reduces risks at the borders.
3. Countermeasures: Iran is working to reduce Israeli operational freedom of action – so far, to our benefit, without significant success (e.g., not against Israel’s offensive action; nor has the launch of the UAVs at vessels been particularly successful). Therefore, it is trying to create a new response equation in the face of Israeli attacks in Syria, and is embracing anew Palestinian organizations as a resource for attacks, and especially now, with the aim of deepening the political divisions in Israel.

Significance:

1. Iran continues to develop a nuclear capability without pressure, and without crossing the threshold that would arouse global ire. It will reach the point where if one day the leader of Iran will need a nuclear deterrent, it will be at his immediate disposal.
2. The US and Israel are more limited in the region. China is eagerly entering the Persian Gulf region, which is an area of utmost importance to the Chinese global strategy, and if it comes at the expense of the position of the United States – all the better. Israel, which appeared to be on the threshold of acceptance into the Arab world, is rejected for the time being. This is not a final divorce and there is still hope for the expansion of the Abraham Accords, but not at the moment. Israel must stabilize and show strength – maybe then.
3. The volatility in the Palestinian arena is used to heighten terrorism and undermine the sense of security. This upset is  more extreme and significant today in view of the socio-economic instability resulting from the judicial revolution.
4. The campaign between wars in Syria stands to change. If the Iranians succeed in their mission, there will be no longer be attacks without a cost. We should anticipate a different form of risk management.