Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have played a key role in the tensions between Israel and Iran since the assassination of a Revolutionary Guards officer in Damascus, culminating in Iran’s attack on Israel on April 14. Despite renewing their diplomatic relations with Iran only in the last year, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are being used as intermediaries for conveying messages between Iran and the United States and Israel, in order to prevent the exchange of blows from escalating into a full-blown war. Similarly, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have even engaged in talks with Hezbollah, despite previously defining it as a terrorist organization. Their aim is to prevent further escalation in the regional fighting ongoing involving Iran’s proxies, Israel, and the United States since October 7.
The Saudis and the Emirates are engaging in diplomatic activism to safeguard their own interest in regional stability. The regional conflict poses a threat to their ambitious economic development plans, which aim to reduce dependence on oil, by attracting tourism, foreign companies, and investments. Regional stability is crucial for their plans to succeed. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was even quoted as saying that “the Gulf states will be the first victims of the expansion of the war,” hinting at the possibility that Iran’s proxies will attack American bases or other targets in the Gulf states.
The role of Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the current crisis is a result of the new regional architecture that has been evolving in recent years, led by the Saudi–Iranian reconciliation in March 2023. With the declining influence of the United States, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have abandoned the policies of their camps and began hedging between the regional and global players. While they acknowledge the destabilizing role of Iran and its proxies in the region, they are not interested in joining any coalition against Tehran. Instead, they aim to maintain a balance between Iran, the United States, and Israel. This was evident in their denial of having participated in intercepting the Iranian attack against Israel and their refusal to share all their intelligence on the matter with the United States. However, their common need for air defense systems and American military assistance against the Iranian threat aligns their interests with those of Israel and the United States. Even before the war, the two Gulf states expressed interest in a defense agreement with the United States, and in the case of Saudi Arabia, the agreement was tied to its willingness to normalize ties with Israel. The latest developments are expected to strengthen their desire for an agreement and may even lead to Riyadh making compromises on the issue of normalization.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have played a key role in the tensions between Israel and Iran since the assassination of a Revolutionary Guards officer in Damascus, culminating in Iran’s attack on Israel on April 14. Despite renewing their diplomatic relations with Iran only in the last year, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are being used as intermediaries for conveying messages between Iran and the United States and Israel, in order to prevent the exchange of blows from escalating into a full-blown war. Similarly, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have even engaged in talks with Hezbollah, despite previously defining it as a terrorist organization. Their aim is to prevent further escalation in the regional fighting ongoing involving Iran’s proxies, Israel, and the United States since October 7.
The Saudis and the Emirates are engaging in diplomatic activism to safeguard their own interest in regional stability. The regional conflict poses a threat to their ambitious economic development plans, which aim to reduce dependence on oil, by attracting tourism, foreign companies, and investments. Regional stability is crucial for their plans to succeed. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was even quoted as saying that “the Gulf states will be the first victims of the expansion of the war,” hinting at the possibility that Iran’s proxies will attack American bases or other targets in the Gulf states.
The role of Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the current crisis is a result of the new regional architecture that has been evolving in recent years, led by the Saudi–Iranian reconciliation in March 2023. With the declining influence of the United States, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have abandoned the policies of their camps and began hedging between the regional and global players. While they acknowledge the destabilizing role of Iran and its proxies in the region, they are not interested in joining any coalition against Tehran. Instead, they aim to maintain a balance between Iran, the United States, and Israel. This was evident in their denial of having participated in intercepting the Iranian attack against Israel and their refusal to share all their intelligence on the matter with the United States. However, their common need for air defense systems and American military assistance against the Iranian threat aligns their interests with those of Israel and the United States. Even before the war, the two Gulf states expressed interest in a defense agreement with the United States, and in the case of Saudi Arabia, the agreement was tied to its willingness to normalize ties with Israel. The latest developments are expected to strengthen their desire for an agreement and may even lead to Riyadh making compromises on the issue of normalization.