Nuclear Talks Between the US and Iran: Cautious Optimism, But Too Early to Assess the Chances of an Agreement | INSS
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Home Posts Nuclear Talks Between the US and Iran: Cautious Optimism, But Too Early to Assess the Chances of an Agreement

Nuclear Talks Between the US and Iran: Cautious Optimism, But Too Early to Assess the Chances of an Agreement
Sima Shine, Eldad Shavit 20 April, 2025

The second round of talks, led by Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and the US Special Envoy Witkoff, was held on Saturday in Rome. As in the first round, the meeting lasted several hours, and at its conclusion, both sides emphasized that the meeting was “productive.” A senior American official even stated that there was “good progress.” A working-level meeting to address “technical” issues is expected in the coming days, and another high-level round is planned for next Saturday.

Before the meeting, the Iranian foreign minister visited Moscow, where he delivered an official letter from Supreme Leader Khamenei to President Putin. Araghchi is also scheduled to visit China to brief its leadership. The American envoy, along with Secretary of State Rubio, held a preparatory meeting in Paris with the political directors of the E3, whose position will be critical if no agreement is reached between Washington and Tehran and the “snapback” clause needs to be triggered to reinstate UN Security Council sanctions on Iran. The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, also arrived in Rome after visiting Tehran, where he attempted to gauge the level of cooperation he can expect from the Iranians. At this stage, Grossi did not participate in the Rome talks, but his agency is expected to play a vital role moving forward, both in future oversight and in closing the information gaps that have accumulated in recent years when Iran blocked access to critical data.

Both parties have shared few details about the substance of the talks, but the few leaked reports suggest they focused mainly on Iran’s enrichment program (with hints of Iranian willingness to transfer highly enriched material out of the country), monitoring arrangements, the future of sanctions, and guarantees that both countries will continue to uphold the agreement. Despite the position of the “hawks” in the United States (and Israel), who demand complete dismantling of the program, the US administration appears to favor a path of compromise, in the spirit of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement. The Iranians, according to the supreme leader’s advisor, Shamkhani, clarified that they would reject any dismantling of their nuclear program based on the Libyan model of 2003, and they would not accept the UAE model, which operates nuclear reactors but forgoes uranium enrichment and depends on imported fuel.

The decision by both parties to continue talks, including at the working level, indicates that Iran and the United States believe the positions presented so far have the potential to move toward an agreement. President Trump has not backed down from his position that if the talks fail, the alternative will be “tough” for Iran, although a New York Times leak suggesting that he blocked an Israeli strike reveals his preferences. In any case, even if both sides are signaling cautious optimism and no current crisis is apparent, it is still too early to assess the likelihood of reaching understandings and an agreement.

 

 

Topics: Iran: Nuclear and Military Programs, Israel-United States Relations, Swords of Iron War
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