The assassination of the chairman of the Political Bureau of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, is certainly a significant event. Haniyeh has led the organization since 2017, when he was first elected chairman, and again in 2021 when he was elected a second time. It is still too early to determine how his assassination will affect the war and Hamas as an organization, but its timing in the middle of a war, and after the assassination of Hezbollah senior official Fuad Shukr in Lebanon as well as of Haniyeh’s deputy, Saleh al-Arouri, several months ago may have a cumulative effect.
It must be remembered that Haniyeh was never number 1 in the organization. In the short history of Hamas, there has never been anyone whose status has been recognized and accepted as standing above everyone else, except for Ahmed Yassin. This also shows the nature of the organization and perhaps the secret of its survival: having a very broad popular base and making cardinal decisions by consensus and shared responsibility. Hamas will quickly find Haniyeh’s replacement and continue on its path while adapting to the needs of the hour.
It is worth noting that after the assassination of Yassin, there was a turnaround that led to Hamas’s participation in the 2006 elections, in contrast to its opposition to participating in the 1996 elections. The question is whether after 10 months of a bloody war, can an event of this type bring about a new way of thinking in Hamas? It’s still too early to say, and any assessment in this matter before the release of the hostages and the end of the war would be premature. But as mentioned, the cumulative effect that can influence Israel in a positive direction also has significance.
As far as Iran is concerned, Haniyeh’s assassination reveals its weaknesses as a sponsor, unable to protect its allies that it hosts, its intelligence vulnerabilities, and its great arrogance.
The assassination of the chairman of the Political Bureau of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, is certainly a significant event. Haniyeh has led the organization since 2017, when he was first elected chairman, and again in 2021 when he was elected a second time. It is still too early to determine how his assassination will affect the war and Hamas as an organization, but its timing in the middle of a war, and after the assassination of Hezbollah senior official Fuad Shukr in Lebanon as well as of Haniyeh’s deputy, Saleh al-Arouri, several months ago may have a cumulative effect.
It must be remembered that Haniyeh was never number 1 in the organization. In the short history of Hamas, there has never been anyone whose status has been recognized and accepted as standing above everyone else, except for Ahmed Yassin. This also shows the nature of the organization and perhaps the secret of its survival: having a very broad popular base and making cardinal decisions by consensus and shared responsibility. Hamas will quickly find Haniyeh’s replacement and continue on its path while adapting to the needs of the hour.
It is worth noting that after the assassination of Yassin, there was a turnaround that led to Hamas’s participation in the 2006 elections, in contrast to its opposition to participating in the 1996 elections. The question is whether after 10 months of a bloody war, can an event of this type bring about a new way of thinking in Hamas? It’s still too early to say, and any assessment in this matter before the release of the hostages and the end of the war would be premature. But as mentioned, the cumulative effect that can influence Israel in a positive direction also has significance.
As far as Iran is concerned, Haniyeh’s assassination reveals its weaknesses as a sponsor, unable to protect its allies that it hosts, its intelligence vulnerabilities, and its great arrogance.