Publications

Russia emerged as the most dominant political and military force in Syria when it sent its troops to support the Assad regime at the height of the civil war in September 2015. However, with the downfall of the Assad regime, Russia now finds itself in a weakened position vis-à-vis the rebel forces. Until recently, Russia had launched airstrikes against them and classified them as terrorists; now it is dependent on the same rebels to ensure the security of its soldiers and its remaining military assets in Syria, while hoping that the...

Within the framework of its struggle against the West and Ukraine, Russia divides the world between “cruel aggressors” and the “defending victims.” The ideological-historic basis for this narrative comes from the Soviet Union’s struggle against Nazi Germany. In recent years, the direct connection between Israel and European Jewry, which is a clear example of a victim, has become blurred, and now Jerusalem is being portrayed as a “cruel aggressor” against a new “defending victim”—the Palestinians. This logic perfectly explains...

Israel’s position regarding the war in Ukraine represents an ongoing dilemma, in part due to the connection that the US administration sees between the Israel-Hamas war and Ukraine’s confrontation with Russia, as well as Washington’s efforts to provide economic and military aid to both Israel and Ukraine. Israel’s neutral position on the war in Ukraine, in face of the longstanding pro-Palestinian position that Moscow has taken, signals to Russia that it can continue to ignore Israeli interests, and at the same time, does not help the...

The riots at the airport in Dagestan, Russia, in late October, like the Prigozhin revolt, exposed a fundamental problem of the Russian regime: the security and policing mechanisms do not act effectively against phenomena that were not defined in advance as a threat to the regime. Against the backdrop of increasing domestic problems in Russia that remain unaddressed, tensions that have the potential to turn into protests are mounting. In some cases, the nature of the problem (for example, the fate of Russian men drafted to fight in...

 The Russian Wagner Group (the private military company “Wagner”) was formed in 2014. Despite Russian law prohibiting the establishment of private armies, the group operated together with the government and with its approval. Its goal was to advance Russia’s political interests via military means, at the behest of the government and without public approval. The group also operated for the economic benefit of its director, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a business figure from the Russian underground. Over the years, the Wagner Group conducted...

The plane crash that killed Yevgeny Prigozhin raises several questions about the Russian establishment: What is the future of the Wagner Group? Is the Russian defense establishment stronger in the aftermath of the crash? Has President Putin regained the control and honor lost in the mutiny by the Wagner Group in late June? Apparently in the short term, the regime’s deterrence will indeed work. It is doubtful, however, that it will suffice as the basis for running a country – especially given the situation that currently engulfs...

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Russian mercenaries, known as the Wagner Group, while comprising a relatively small part of the Russian forces in general, played an important role in Russia’s war against Ukraine, not only thanks to their military skills, but also due to Prigozhin’s political and media capabilities. Indeed, they have influenced the battlefield and the situation within Russia. On June 23, 2023, increasing friction between Prigozhin, who emerged during the war as an independent anti-establishment political player (he has no formal...

On the eve of the hostilities between Russia and Ukraine that erupted in February 2022, and even more so in the course of the war, many private companies, at their own initiative, adopted an active stance on the conflict in two main spheres: sending direct and intensive aid to Ukraine, and curbing or ceasing operations in Russia. These measures have an impact on the economic situation on both sides of the conflict, as well as on the course of the war. This is an important and partly new phenomenon that could have implications for...