The details surrounding the abduction and murder of Chabad emissary Rabbi Zvi Kogan in the UAE are not fully known. However, it can be cautiously assessed that Iran is behind the killing. For some time, Iran has sought to harm Israeli figures and targets abroad. In this context, numerous attempts have been thwarted, thanks to the Mossad’s cooperation with foreign intelligence agencies in various locations.
The murder of an emissary associated with the State of Israel and holding a religious position certainly embarrasses the UAE authorities, who have championed cultural and religious tolerance while maintaining relations with Israel despite pressures, including from Iran, to sever them.
It was an initiative of the Emirates in 2019 to seek improved relations with the state that poses the greatest threat to it. This cautious rapprochement with Tehran is part of a traditional risk-hedging strategy, reflecting the UAE’s relative weakness compared to Iran. For its part, Iran seeks to rebuild relations with the Gulf states to break its isolation while simultaneously engaging in subversion and terrorism and threatening them against strengthening ties with Israel.
Until now, Iran has hesitated to act against Israel within the Gulf states, especially on UAE soil. The UAE, as an international economic-commercial hub, is critical to Iran’s economy. Excluding oil, the UAE—particularly Dubai—is Iran’s most important trading partner, and Iran has an interest in preserving this relationship. This may explain why the murder was carried out through proxies, to obscure Iran’s involvement.
My recommendation to Israeli politicians is to refrain from issuing the usual threatening statements and to downplay Iran’s role in this case as much as possible. This approach aims to avoid embarrassing the Emiratis, as such declarations could harm the UAE’s image as a free and secure state and exacerbate tensions in its relations with Iran.
The details surrounding the abduction and murder of Chabad emissary Rabbi Zvi Kogan in the UAE are not fully known. However, it can be cautiously assessed that Iran is behind the killing. For some time, Iran has sought to harm Israeli figures and targets abroad. In this context, numerous attempts have been thwarted, thanks to the Mossad’s cooperation with foreign intelligence agencies in various locations.
The murder of an emissary associated with the State of Israel and holding a religious position certainly embarrasses the UAE authorities, who have championed cultural and religious tolerance while maintaining relations with Israel despite pressures, including from Iran, to sever them.
It was an initiative of the Emirates in 2019 to seek improved relations with the state that poses the greatest threat to it. This cautious rapprochement with Tehran is part of a traditional risk-hedging strategy, reflecting the UAE’s relative weakness compared to Iran. For its part, Iran seeks to rebuild relations with the Gulf states to break its isolation while simultaneously engaging in subversion and terrorism and threatening them against strengthening ties with Israel.
Until now, Iran has hesitated to act against Israel within the Gulf states, especially on UAE soil. The UAE, as an international economic-commercial hub, is critical to Iran’s economy. Excluding oil, the UAE—particularly Dubai—is Iran’s most important trading partner, and Iran has an interest in preserving this relationship. This may explain why the murder was carried out through proxies, to obscure Iran’s involvement.
My recommendation to Israeli politicians is to refrain from issuing the usual threatening statements and to downplay Iran’s role in this case as much as possible. This approach aims to avoid embarrassing the Emiratis, as such declarations could harm the UAE’s image as a free and secure state and exacerbate tensions in its relations with Iran.